A PANEL DATA APPROACH FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION: MEASURING THE BENEFITS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF HONG KONG WITH MAINLAND CHINA
A PANEL DATA APPROACH FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION: MEASURING THE BENEFITS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF HONG KONG WITH MAINLAND CHINA
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DOI：
10.1002/jae.1230
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Wan, Shui Ki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hsiao, Cheng;Ching, H. Steve;Wan, Shui Ki
我们提出了一个简单的实施面板数据方法来评估社会政策的影响。其基本思想是利用横截面单元之间的依赖关系来构造反事实。横截面的相关性归因于一些（未观察到的）共同因素的存在。然而，我们建议使用观察到的数据，而不是试图估计未观察到的因素。我们使用一个由24个国家组成的小组来评估香港与中国大陆的政治和经济融合的影响。我们发现政治整合对香港经济增长的影响不大。然而，经济融合使香港每年的真实的国内生产总值提高了约4%。版权所有（c）2011约翰威利父子有限公司
We propose a simple-to-implement panel data method to evaluate the impacts of social policy. The basic idea is to exploit the dependence among cross-sectional units to construct the counterfactuals. The cross-sectional correlations are attributed to the presence of some (unobserved) common factors. However, instead of trying to estimate the unobserved factors, we propose to use observed data. We use a panel of 24 countries to evaluate the impact of political and economic integration of Hong Kong with mainland China. We find that the political integration hardly had any impact on the growth of the Hong Kong economy. However, the economic integration has raised Hong Kong's annual real GDP by about 4%. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.