Effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on 2-m Air Temperature Prediction over China during Boreal Winter in the S2S Database
Effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on 2-m Air Temperature Prediction over China during Boreal Winter in the S2S Database
复制标题
S2S 数据库中马登-朱利安振荡对中国寒冬期间 2 米气温预测的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-018-4538-z
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发表时间：
--
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Mengke La
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yang Zhou;Ben Yang;Haishan Chen;Yaocun Zhang;Anning Huang;Mengke La
通过对11个次季节到季节（S2 S）预报模式的再预报分析，探讨了MJO对我国冬季2 m气温（T2 M）预报技巧的影响。大多数S2 S模型在五元组3和4之前具有有用的预测技能（相关技能≥ 0.5）。ECMWF模型对近4个五元组具有较好的预测能力，在11个模型中表现最好。ECCC和ECMWF模式的集合预报结果更可靠，集合策略也更好。所有模型对青藏高原T2 M的预测能力都低于中国其他地区。此外，初始状态和模型分辨率对S2 S预报技巧有重要影响。在大多数模式中，在第3、4候，在中国部分地区，初始时刻加入MJO的T2 M预报能力明显高于不加入MJO的T2 M预报能力。然而，由于MJO的预测技能差异的空间分布是不一致的11个模型。这表明MJO对中国第3和第4候T2 M预测的影响存在不确定性。MJO在北方半球激发的行星尺度遥相关型是MJO影响T2 M预报水平的可能原因。由于大多数模式能在3 ~ 4个预报候维持这种遥相关型，因此MJO能在这段时间内影响中国上空的大气环流，提高模式的T2 M预报能力。这一发现表明，在初始条件下，用MJO初始化的中国冬季T2 M的预测在第3和第4候比没有MJO的预测更准确。
The reforecast of 11 models in the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project has been analyzed to investigate the effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the prediction skill of winter 2-m air temperature (T2M) over China. Most of the S2S models have useful prediction skills (correlation skill ≥ 0.5) before pentads 3 and 4. ECMWF model can possess a good prediction skill for almost four pentads and perform the best among the 11 models. ECCC and ECMWF models have more reliable ensemble prediction and better ensemble strategies than the other models. All the models tend to have lower T2M prediction skill over the Tibetan Plateau than that over the other regions of China. Moreover, initial state and model resolution have important influences on S2S prediction skill. In most of the models at pentads 3 and 4, T2M prediction skill of forecast with MJO at initial time is significantly higher than that without over parts of China. However, the spatial distributions of the prediction skill differences due to MJO are not consistent among the 11 models. This indicates that there is an uncertainty of the effects of MJO on T2M prediction over China at pentads 3 and 4. Planetary-scale teleconnection pattern excited by MJO over the Northern Hemisphere is the possible reason for the effect of MJO on T2M prediction skill. Because most of the models can maintain this teleconnection pattern for three to four forecast pentads, MJO can affect the atmospheric circulation over China during this period, and improve the T2M prediction skill in the models. This finding suggests that the prediction of winter T2M over China initialized with MJO can be more skillful at pentads 3 and 4 than that without MJO in the initial conditions.