Does inflation trigger early repayment on Covid-19 UK guaranteed loans?

Does inflation trigger early repayment on Covid-19 UK guaranteed loans?
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通货膨胀是否会引发 Covid-19 英国担保贷款的提前还款?

DOI:
10.1080/13504851.2023.2205091
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发表时间:
2023
影响因子:
1.6
通讯作者:
Cowling M
Cowling M
中科院分区:
经济学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Cowling M

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在新冠肺炎大流行期间,英国政府承销了逾168万笔商业贷款,总额达784亿GB。鉴于反弹贷款(BBL)有100%的担保,而冠状病毒业务中断贷款计划(CBILS)有80%的担保,公共部门或有负债非常大。在本文中,我们探讨了最近英国通胀的急剧上升是否促使拥有新冠肺炎商业贷款担保贷款和CBILS担保贷款的公司提前偿还未偿债务(提前于原始贷款协议中规定的全部6年期贷款期限)。我们的结果表明,通胀上升对两种担保计划的提前还贷都产生了强烈和积极的影响,情况确实如此。这与该公司的债务厌恶以及预期未来经济衰退、流动性问题和高利率而减少现有债务的愿望是一致的。
The UK government underwrote more than 1.68 million business loans totalling £78.4bn during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that the Bounce Back Loan (BBL) had a 100% guarantee and the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) 80%, the public sector contingent liability is very large. In this article, we explore whether or not the recent and dramatic rises in UK inflation have prompted firms with COVID-19 BBL and CBILS guaranteed loans to repay their outstanding debt early (in advance of the full 6-year loan term as specified in the original loan agreement). Our results show that this was indeed the case with increasing inflation exerting a strong and positive effect on early loan repayment on both guarantee schemes. This is consistent with the firm’s debt aversion and a desire to reduce existing debts in anticipation of a future economic recession, liquidity problems and high interest rates.
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发表时间: 2002
期刊:
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