Irrigation water demand for the decision maker
Irrigation water demand for the decision maker
复制标题
决策者的灌溉用水需求
DOI：
10.1017/s1355770x02000396
复制
发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Stéphane Couture
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Bontemps;Stéphane Couture
本文研究了灌溉需水量估算问题。我们提出了一种分两步估计的新颖方法。首先，我们建立了一个动态规划模型来解释最优灌溉管理计划。该模型以微观经济学方法描述农民的行为为基础，引入农艺模型和解搜索算法来计算一个现实数据库。其次，利用这些数据通过非参数方法估计利润函数。利用非参数推导过程估计灌溉需水量函数。在冲突频繁发生的法国西南部地区，提出了一种应用于灌溉用水需求的方法。同样的结果出现在不同的气候条件下：对于少量可用的水，灌溉用水需求似乎相当缺乏弹性。如果增加可用水的总量，曲线的形状就会发生变化，需求就会显得更有弹性。出现价格响应性变化的阈值价格取决于天气条件，范围从湿润年的0.30华氏度/立方米到干旱年的1.60华氏度/立方米。为了分析基于价格的水监管政策的影响，这些结果对监管机构来说是至关重要的信息。水价上涨的影响不仅取决于气候，还取决于初始价格和最终价格在需求函数上的位置。JEL分类：C14， C16, Q15
This paper deals with the problems of estimating irrigation water demand. We propose an original method of estimation in two steps. First, we develop a dynamic programming model in order to explain the optimal irrigation management plan. Based on a microeconomic approach describing the farmer's behavior, this economic model, introducing an agronomic model, and an algorithm of solution search, is used to compute a realistic database. Second, these data are used to estimate profit functions by a non-parametric method. The irrigation water demand function is estimated using a non-parametric derivation procedure. An application to irrigation water demand is proposed in the southwestern area of France where conflicts appear frequently. The same results appear for different climates: for small quantities of water available, irrigation water demand seems to be quite inelastic. If one increases the total quantity of water available, the shape of the curve changes and the demand appears more elastic. The threshold price at which the changes in price-responsiveness appears, depends on weather conditions and range from 0.30 F/m3 in a wet year to 1.60 F/m3 in a dry year. These results are crucial information for the regulator in order to analyze the effects of a water regulation policy, based on prices. The impact of an increase in the water price will depend not only on the climate but also on the location of the initial and final prices on the demand function. JEL classification: C14, C16, Q15