Trends and Variability in Severe Snowstorms East of the Rocky Mountains
Trends and Variability in Severe Snowstorms East of the Rocky Mountains
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jhm-d-13-068.1
复制
发表时间：
2014-09
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
J. Lawrimore;T. Karl;Michael F. Squires;D. Robinson;K. Kunkel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Lawrimore;T. Karl;Michael F. Squires;D. Robinson;K. Kunkel
对落基山脉以东六个气候区中的100场最严重的暴风雪进行了分析，以了解严重暴风雪的频率如何与其他变量的季节平均值相关联，这些变量可能更容易预测和预测。特别是，研究了1901年至2013年的温度，降水和厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜异常。在美国南部，寒冷的季节性温度与严重暴风雪的发展比北方更密切相关。在美国南部地区，在比平均温度低的季节发生一场或多场严重暴风雪的条件概率为80%或更高，这在统计上是显著的，而当季节温度高于平均温度时，它低至35%。相比之下，无条件概率为55%-60%。对于比平均水平更潮湿（干燥）的季节，严重的暴风雪频率显着更高（l...
AbstractThe 100 most severe snowstorms within each of six climate regions east of the Rocky Mountains were analyzed to understand how the frequency of severe snowstorms is associated with seasonal averages of other variables that may be more readily predicted and projected. In particular, temperature, precipitation, and El Nino/La Nina anomalies from 1901 to 2013 were studied. In the southern United States, anomalously cold seasonal temperatures were found to be more closely linked to severe snowstorm development than in the northern United States. The conditional probability of occurrence of one or more severe snowstorms in seasons that are colder than average is 80% or greater in regions of the southern United States, which was found to be statistically significant, while it is as low as 35% when seasonal temperatures are warmer than average. This compares with unconditional probabilities of 55%–60%. For seasons that are wetter (drier) than average, severe snowstorm frequency is significantly greater (l...