Predictability of the Strong Ural blocking Event in January 2012 in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Models of Europe and Canada
Predictability of the Strong Ural blocking Event in January 2012 in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Models of Europe and Canada
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欧洲和加拿大次季节到季节模型对2012年1月乌拉尔强阻塞事件的预测
DOI：
10.3390/atmos11050538
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发表时间：
2020-05
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Guolin Feng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dong Chen;Shaobo Qiao;Shankai Tang;Ho Nam Cheung;Jieyu Liu;Guolin Feng
乌拉尔山阻塞事件的发生是西伯利亚和东亚地区强冷空气爆发的重要前兆，对准确预报乌拉尔山阻塞事件具有重要意义。使用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）和加拿大环境与气候变化中心（ECCC）的亚季节到季节（S2S）模型，我们评估了2012年1月18日至26日持续UB事件的可预测性。结果表明，ECCC模型对UB事件发展阶段的预报上级ECMWF模型，对UB事件衰减阶段的预报优于ECCC模型，对UB事件发展阶段的预报优于ECMWF模型。通过对两个模式分别用地转涡度倾向方程和温度倾向方程预报的UB事件的动力和热力演化进行比较，发现ECCC模式较好地预报了发展阶段的垂直涡度平流、非地转涡度倾向、倾斜效应、水平温度平流和绝热加热，而ECMWF模型较好地预测了衰减阶段的三个动力学项和两个热力学项。另外，在发展和衰减阶段，两种模式对涡旋拉伸项的预报都是好（坏）的（水平涡度平流），预测和观测之间的PCC大于（小于）+0.70（+0.10）因此，我们认为，S2S模式对持续性UB事件的预报可能通过更好地预报水平涡度平流而得到改善。
The occurrence of a Ural blocking (UB) event is an important precursor of severe cold air outbreaks in Siberia and East Asia, and thus is significant to accurately predict UB events. Using subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), we evaluated the predictability of a persistent UB event on 18 to 26 January 2012. Results showed that the ECCC model was superior to the ECMWF model in predicting the development stage of the UB event ten days in advance, while the ECMWF model had better predictions than the ECCC model for more than ten days in advance and the decaying stage of the UB event. By comparing the dynamic and thermodynamic evolution of the UB event predicted by the two models via the geostrophic vorticity tendency equation and temperature tendency equation, we found that the ECCC model better predicted the vertical vorticity advection, ageostrophic vorticity tendency, the tilting effect, horizontal temperature advection, and adiabatic heating during the development stage, whereas the ECMWF model better predicted the three dynamic and the two thermodynamic terms during the decaying stage. In addition, during both the development and decaying stages, the two models were good (bad) at predicting the vortex stretching term (horizontal vorticity advection), with the PCC between both the predictions and the observations larger (smaller) than +0.70 (+0.10) Thus, we suggest that the prediction of the persistent UB event in the S2S model might be improved by the better prediction of the horizontal vorticity advection.
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影响因子：
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作者：
Gong Zhiqiang;Wang Xiaojuan;Feng Guolin;Ren Fumin
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DOI：
10.3402/tellusa.v35i5.11446
发表时间：
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发表时间：
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