A Deviation Measurement for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia
A Deviation Measurement for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia
复制标题
东亚协调汇率政策的偏差测量
DOI：
10.4324/9780203356418_chapter_7
复制
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
0.6
通讯作者：
Junko Shimizu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Ogawa;Junko Shimizu
自1997年亚洲货币危机以来，东亚国家的货币当局一直在加强区域货币合作。在本文中，我们提出了东亚协调汇率政策的偏差度量，以加强货币当局对区域货币合作的监督过程。在将欧元引入一些欧盟国家之前，我们根据在EMS下使用的计算ECU的方法，将AMU(亚洲货币单位)估计为东亚货币的加权平均。我们考虑了四种类型的AMU，它们是基于贸易量、名义GDP、以购买力平价衡量的GDP和国际储备。在选择了以购买力平价衡量的GDP为基础的AMU和从美元和欧元组成的货币篮子中AMU值稳定的角度计算贸易权重后，我们计算了每种东亚货币与基准汇率的偏离指标。我们通过考虑通货膨胀率差异来比较名义和实际偏差指标。实际偏差指标应该足以监测汇率政策对实体经济的影响，而名义偏差指标则可以经常实时监测。
The monetary authorities in East Asian countries have been strengthening their regional monetary cooperation since the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997. In this paper, we propose a deviation measurement for coordinated exchange rate policies in East Asia to enhance the monetary authorities' surveillance process for their regional monetary cooperation. We estimate an AMU (Asian Monetary Unit) as a weighted average of East Asian currencies according to the method to calculate the ECU used under the EMS before introducing the euro into some EU countries. We consider four types of AMU, which are based on trade volume, nominal GDP, GDP measured at PPP, and international reserves. After choosing both the AMUs based on GDP measured at PPP weight and trade weight from a viewpoint of stability of the AMU value in terms of a currency basket composed of the US dollar and the euro, we calculate the deviation indicators from the benchmark rates for each of the East Asian currencies. We compare both nominal and real deviation indicators by taking into account inflation rate differentials. The real deviation indicator should be adequate for surveillance over effects of exchange rate policy on real economy while the nominal one can be frequently watched in real time.