SIGNIFICANCE TESTS DIE HARD - THE AMAZING PERSISTENCE OF A PROBABILISTIC MISCONCEPTION
SIGNIFICANCE TESTS DIE HARD - THE AMAZING PERSISTENCE OF A PROBABILISTIC MISCONCEPTION
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DOI：
10.1177/0959354395051004
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发表时间：
1995-02-01
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
GREENBAUM, CW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
FALK, R;GREENBAUM, CW
我们提出了一个批评，显示统计显著性检验的逻辑结构有缺陷。然后，我们试图分析为什么，尽管这种错误的推理，使用显着性测试坚持。我们确定的错觉概率证明的矛盾作为一个中心的绊脚石，因为它是基于一个误导性的推广推理从逻辑推理不确定性。我们提出了新的数据，从学生样本和心理学文献的例子显示这种错觉的强度和流行。我们确定了一些内在的认知机制（类似于否定前件推理;在描述显著性检验的意义时的语言模糊性;以及排除偶然发现的必要性）和有助于维持错觉的外在社会压力。最后，我们提到一些替代方法来呈现和分析心理数据，没有一个可以被认为是最终的方法。
We present a critique showing the flawed logical structure of statistical significance tests. We then attempt to analyze why, in spite of this faulty reasoning, the use of significance tests persists. We identify the illusion of probabilistic proof by contradiction as a central stumbling block, because it is based on a misleading generalization of reasoning from logic to inference under uncertainty. We present new data from a student sample and examples from the psychological literature showing the strength and prevalence of this illusion. We identify some intrinsic cognitive mechanisms (similarity to modus tollens reasoning; verbal ambiguity in describing the meaning of significance tests; and the need to rule out chance findings) and extrinsic social pressures which help to maintain the illusion. We conclude by mentioning some alternative methods for presenting and analyzing psychological data, none of which can be considered the ultimate method.