Clustering scenarios using cross-impact analysis
Clustering scenarios using cross-impact analysis
复制标题
使用交叉影响分析对场景进行聚类
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Joaquín López
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. A. Bañuls;M. Turoff;Joaquín López
情景经常用于应急规划和准备。该等情景乃根据重大事件发生与否的假设而制定。由于事件之间的相互关系，这是一个复杂的过程。这一事实，沿着事件发生或不发生的不确定性，使得情景生成过程对应急管理人员来说是一个具有挑战性的问题。在这项工作中，提出了一个新的逐步模型，通过交叉影响的聚类方案。作者的建议增加了检测关键事件和图形表示的工具，以前的基于交叉影响分析的方法生成的关键事件。此外，它允许在不使用大型计算基础设施的情况下处理大量事件。预计这些贡献将有助于支持应急规划和准备中的重大事件分析和风险评估任务。通过一个例子，该模型的操作问题和实际意义进行了讨论。
Scenarios are frequently used in Emergency Planning and Preparedness. These scenarios are developed based on the hypothesis of occurrence or not of significant events. This is a complex process because of the interrelations between events. This fact, along with the uncertainty about the occurrence or non-occurrence of the events, makes the scenario generation process a challenging issue for emergency managers. In this work a new step-by-step model for clustering scenarios via cross-impact is proposed. The authors‟ proposal adds tools for detecting critical events and graphical representation to the previous scenario-generation methods based on Cross-Impact Analysis. Moreover, it allows working with large sets of events without using great computational infrastructures. These contributions are expected to be useful for supporting the analysis of critical events and risk assessment tasks in Emergency Planning and Preparedness. Operational issues and practical implications of the model are discussed by means of an example.