Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions
Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-017-3964-7
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发表时间：
2018-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Sparks, R. Stephen J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hopcroft, Peter O.;Kandlbauer, Jessy;Sparks, R. Stephen J.
火山爆发对十年至百年气候变率有重要影响。大规模喷发导致平流层硫酸盐气溶胶层的形成，可造成短期全球降温。这种反应是由地球系统中的反馈过程调制的，但未来变暖的影响以前没有被评估过。使用地球系统模型模拟，我们发现，喷发引起的冷却是显着减弱，在未来的状态。这主要是由于对流层气溶胶负荷增加造成的行星对流增加，以及云特性相关变化的贡献。对流层对流度的增加降低了有效的火山气溶胶辐射强迫。减少海冰覆盖，因此反馈也有助于高纬度地区，并加强冬季变暖的信号出现在未来的喷发合奏。这些研究结果表明，火山爆发的反应是一个复杂的功能的环境条件，这对火山爆发的作用在未来的气候变化，并可能在过去的影响。
Volcanic eruptions are an important influence on decadal to centennial climate variability. Large eruptions lead to the formation of a stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer which can cause short-term global cooling. This response is modulated by feedback processes in the earth system, but the influence from future warming has not been assessed before. Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties. The increased albedo of the troposphere reduces the effective volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. Reduced sea-ice coverage and hence feedbacks also contribute over high-latitudes, and an enhanced winter warming signal emerges in the future eruption ensemble. These findings show that the eruption response is a complex function of the environmental conditions, which has implications for the role of eruptions in climate variability in the future and potentially in the past.