The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19
The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1093/rapstu/raaa008
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发表时间：
2020-12-01
影响因子：
13.1
通讯作者：
Viratyosin, Tasaneeya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Baker, Scott R.;Bloom, Nicholas;Viratyosin, Tasaneeya
此前，包括西班牙流感在内的任何传染病爆发都没有像 COVID-19 大流行那样对股市产生如此强烈的影响。事实上，之前的流行病只给美国股市留下了轻微的痕迹。我们使用基于文本的方法来针对回溯到 1900 年的每日股市大幅波动以及回溯到 1985 年的整体股市波动来阐述这些观点。我们还评估了股市对 COVID-19 大流行前所未有的反应的潜在解释。我们收集的证据表明，政府对商业活动和自愿社交距离的限制在服务导向型经济中产生了强大的影响，这是美国股市对 COVID-19 的反应比对 1918-1919 年、1957-1958 年和 1968 年之前的流行病反应强烈得多的主要原因。
No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has affected the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text-based methods to develop these points with respect to large daily stock market moves back to 1900 and with respect to overall stock market volatility back to 1985. We also evaluate potential explanations for the unprecedented stock market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. The evidence we amass suggests that government restrictions on commercial activity and voluntary social distancing, operating with powerful effects in a service-oriented economy, are the main reasons the U.S. stock market reacted so much more forcefully to COVID-19 than to previous pandemics in 1918-1919, 1957-1958, and 1968.