Robust determinants of CO2 emissions
Robust determinants of CO2 emissions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105154
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发表时间：
2021-02-17
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Grechyna, Daryna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Aller, Carlos;Ductor, Lorenzo;Grechyna, Daryna
我们综合了最近大量关于二氧化碳排放决定因素的论文的研究结果，并使用贝叶斯模型平均确定了解释模型不确定性的最稳健的决定因素。我们的研究结果表明，人均国内生产总值、化石燃料在能源消费中的份额、城市化、工业化、民主化、贸易的间接影响（网络效应）和政治极化是人均二氧化碳排放的重要决定因素。所有这些决定因素都会对环境产生负面影响，但政治两极分化加剧会降低二氧化碳排放量。我们还发现，二氧化碳排放的决定因素取决于一个国家的人均收入水平。在低收入经济体中，外国直接投资加剧了环境退化，而游客的到来对高收入经济体的环境产生了负面影响。结果对于 Cluster-LASSO 模型选择方法和加权平均最小二乘法是稳健的。 (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
We synthesize the findings of a large number of recent papers on the determinants of CO2 emissions and identify the most robust determinants accounting for model uncertainty using Bayesian Model Averaging. Our results show that GDP per capita, the share of fossil fuels in energy consumption, urbanization, industrialization, democratization, the indirect effects of trade (networks effects) and political polarization are the robust determinants of CO2 emissions per capita. All of these determinants negatively affect the environment, with the exception of greater political polarization, which reduces the level of CO2 emissions. We also find that the determinants of CO2 emissions depend on the level of income per capita of a country. In low-income economies, foreign direct investment increases environmental degradation, while tourist arrivals have a negative impact on the environment in high-income economies. The results are robust to the Cluster-LASSO model selection method and Weighted Average Least Squares. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.