Future projections of total hip and knee arthroplasty in the UK: results from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink
Future projections of total hip and knee arthroplasty in the UK: results from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink
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DOI：
10.1016/j.joca.2014.12.022
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发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Arden, N. K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Culliford, D.;Maskell, J.;Arden, N. K.
目的：估计到2035年英国初次全髋关节（THR）或全膝关节（TKR）置换术的未来比率，考虑人口统计学和肥胖的变化。设计：使用50，000例THR和45例THR的基于人群的队列研究中的年龄/性别/体重指数（BMI）特定发病率，1991年至2010年期间，来自英国临床实践研究数据链（CPRD）的609例TKR患者，我们使用两种模型预测了THR和TKR的未来数量：将2010年的静态估计增长率应用于2035年的人口增长预测，并对同一时期的增长率进行对数线性外推。这两种情况下使用的人口预测数据，从英国国家统计局（ONS）。结果：假设THR和TKR率为2010年，并考虑到预计的人口变化的年龄，性别和BMI，THR和TKR的数量在英国进行，在2035年估计分别为：95，877和118，666。相比之下，使用对数线性模型对历史发生率进行指数外推，得出2035年THR和TKR计数的估计值要高得多，分别为439，097和1，219，362。妇女的预计人数高于男子。假设一个不断变化的（而不是固定的）未来的BMI分布增加TKRs到2035年，但不是THRs.Conclusions：使用历史率和人口预测，我们已经预计到2035年在英国THR/TKR操作的数量。这项研究将为需要估计未来手术需求的政策制定者提供信息。将BMI的未来预测转化为关节置换的预测可能与TKR而不是THR更相关。(C)2015国际骨关节炎研究学会。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Objective: To estimate the future rate of primary total hip (THR) or knee (TKR) replacement in the UK to 2035 allowing for changes in population demographics and obesity.Design: Using age/gender/body mass index (BMI)-specific incidence rates from a population-based cohort study of 50,000 THR and 45,609 TKR patients from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) between 1991 and 2010, we projected future numbers of THR and TKR using two models: a static, estimated rate from 2010 applied to population growth forecasts to 2035, and a log-linear rate extrapolation over the same period. Both scenarios used population forecast data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS).Results: Assuming rates of THR and TKR for 2010, and given projected population changes in age, gender and BMI, the number of THRs and TKRs performed in the UK in 2035 is estimated to be, respectively: 95,877 and 118,666. By comparison, an exponential extrapolation of historical rates using a log-linear model produces much higher estimates of THR and TKR counts in 2035 at 439,097 and 1,219,362 respectively. Projected counts were higher for women than men. Assuming a changing (rather than fixed) future BMI distribution increases TKRs by 2035 but not THRs.Conclusions: Using historical rates and population forecasts we have projected the number of THR/TKR operations in the UK up to 2035. This study will inform policymakers requiring estimates of future demand for surgery. Incorporating future forecasts for BMI into projections of joint replacement may be more relevant for TKR rather than THR. (C) 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.