Wind gust estimation for Mid-European winter storms: towards a probabilistic view
Wind gust estimation for Mid-European winter storms: towards a probabilistic view
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欧洲中部冬季风暴的阵风估计：概率观点
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Pinto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Born;P. Ludwig;J. Pinto
摘要本文用技巧评分法对COSMO-CLM数值天气预报模式中的三种阵风估计方法的预报质量进行了评价。两种方法估计阵风局部平均风速和大气湍流状态，而第三个考虑混合下来的行星边界层内的高动量（WGE Brasseur）。一百五十八个风暴从过去四十年的模拟和结果进行了比较，阵风观测在德国的37个站。技能分数显示，当地的WGE方法表现出整体更好的行为，而WGE Brasseur表现不佳，除了山区。这里介绍的WGE湍流动能（TKE）允许在观测站点的不确定性评估的阵风的统计特性的概率解释。WGE TKE公式的优点是，由于TKE的局部出现，对阵风进行了“本地”解释。因此，在NWP模式中包含概率WGE TKE方法比其他方法具有几个优点，因为它具有估计观测站点阵风不确定性的潜力。
Abstract Three wind gust estimation (WGE) methods implemented in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO-CLM are evaluated with respect to their forecast quality using skill scores. Two methods estimate gusts locally from mean wind speed and the turbulence state of the atmosphere, while the third one considers the mixing-down of high momentum within the planetary boundary layer (WGE Brasseur). One hundred and fifty-eight windstorms from the last four decades are simulated and results are compared with gust observations at 37 stations in Germany. Skill scores reveal that the local WGE methods show an overall better behaviour, whilst WGE Brasseur performs less well except for mountain regions. The here introduced WGE turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) permits a probabilistic interpretation using statistical characteristics of gusts at observational sites for an assessment of uncertainty. The WGE TKE formulation has the advantage of a ‘native’ interpretation of wind gusts as result of local appearance of TKE. The inclusion of a probabilistic WGE TKE approach in NWP models has, thus, several advantages over other methods, as it has the potential for an estimation of uncertainties of gusts at observational sites.