Pathogen Mutation Modeled by Competition Between Site and Bond Percolation
Pathogen Mutation Modeled by Competition Between Site and Bond Percolation
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DOI：
10.1103/physrevlett.110.108103
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发表时间：
2013-03-05
影响因子：
8.6
通讯作者：
Althouse, Benjamin M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hebert-Dufresne, Laurent;Patterson-Lomba, Oscar;Althouse, Benjamin M.
虽然疾病传播是网络科学的主要焦点，但其与治疗的共同进化尚未在该框架下进行研究。我们提出了一个平均场和随机分析的流行病模型与抗病毒药物和耐药性的发展。我们展示了该模型如何映射到具有滞后和二阶和一级相变的位点和键渗透之间的共同进化竞争。后者在网络上的存在是一个长期存在的问题，它意味着感染率的微观变化可能导致预期流行病规模的宏观跃升。DOI: 10.1103 / PhysRevLett.110.108103
While disease propagation is a main focus of network science, its coevolution with treatment has yet to be studied in this framework. We present a mean-field and stochastic analysis of an epidemic model with antiviral administration and resistance development. We show how this model maps to a coevolutive competition between site and bond percolation featuring hysteresis and both second- and first-order phase transitions. The latter, whose existence on networks is a long-standing question, imply that a microscopic change in infection rate can lead to macroscopic jumps in expected epidemic size. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.108103