Within-Neighborhood Dynamics: Disadvantage, Collective Efficacy, and Homicide Rates in Chicago
Within-Neighborhood Dynamics: Disadvantage, Collective Efficacy, and Homicide Rates in Chicago
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DOI：
10.1093/socpro/spy013
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Becker, Jacob H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Becker, Jacob H.
对社区结构条件（如集中的劣势和犯罪）的研究主要集中在社区之间的差异上;例如，劣势较多的地方预计会有更高的杀人率。然而，实证研究往往不考虑结构稳定性和变化的邻域内动态。此外，最近的几项研究发现，结构变量和犯罪结果之间的横截面关联在不同单位之间可能会有很大差异，这违反了全球建模策略的一个关键假设。目前的工作探讨是否以及如何在不利的历史变化影响邻里集体效能和凶杀率，在给定的时间点的不利水平净。集体效能理论上调解条件和犯罪之间的关系，并假设是通过结构变化影响杀人率的机制。它还假设，不利和社会结果之间的横截面关联的空间变化可以解释为占内邻里的不利变化。使用样本的芝加哥社区和普通最小二乘法和地理加权回归模型，我发现，邻里内的变化，不利显着预测邻里集体效能，虽然这种变化对杀人率的影响并不完全介导的集体效能。邻里内的变化完全解释了横截面关联的空间变化，为先前的研究结果提供了一种解释。邻里结构的变化似乎破坏了集体效能，并有助于更高的杀人率比预测的水平的不利单独。
Research on neighborhood structural conditions like concentrated disadvantage and crime largely focuses on between-neighborhood differences; for example, places with more disadvantage are expected to experience higher homicide rates. However, empirical research often does not consider within-neighborhood dynamics of structural stability and change. Furthermore, several recent studies have found cross-sectional associations between structural variables and crime outcomes can vary significantly across units, violating a key assumption of global modeling strategies. The current work explores if and how historical changes in disadvantage influence neighborhood collective efficacy and homicide rates, net of the level of disadvantage at a given time point. Collective efficacy theoretically mediates the relationship between conditions and crime, and is hypothesized to be the mechanism through which structural change influences homicide rates. It is also hypothesized that spatial variation in cross-sectional associations between disadvantage and social outcomes can be explained by accounting for within-neighborhood changes in disadvantage. Using a sample of Chicago neighborhoods and ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression models, I find that within-neighborhood changes in disadvantage significantly predict neighborhood collective efficacy, though the effects of this change on homicide rates are not completely mediated by collective efficacy. Within-neighborhood change completely accounts for spatial variation in cross- sectional associations, offering one explanation of prior research findings. Within-neighborhood structural changes appear to disrupt collective efficacy and contribute to higher homicide rates than predicted by the level of disadvantage alone.