Iraq's Future
Iraq's Future
复制标题
伊拉克的未来
DOI：
10.1080/1356788950183
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Toby Dodge
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Toby Dodge
很难高估今天伊拉克的利害关系。事实证明，萨达姆·侯赛因下台是一个漫长和非常不确定的国家建设过程的开始，而不是高潮。这篇阿德尔菲论文从军事、政治和社会学的角度考察了伊拉克目前正在进行的国家建设进程。伊拉克可能的未来首先是通过研究犯罪和出于政治动机的暴力的演变来绘制的，这些暴力已经主导了普通伊拉克人的日常生活。然后详细介绍了政权更迭后建立的政治结构的优点和缺点，从2003年伊拉克管理委员会的成立到2005年1月的选举。最后，它追踪了推动后萨达姆时代伊拉克政治动员的动力。报告最后分析了政权更迭对美国政策和整个中东的影响。
It is hard to over-estimate what is at stake in Iraq today. The removal of Saddam Hussein has proved to be the beginning not the culmination of a long and very uncertain process of state building. This Adelphi Paper examines the process of state building now underway in Iraq from a military, political and sociological perspective. Possible futures for Iraq are charted firstly by studying the evolution of the criminal and politically motivated violence that has come to dominate the everyday lives of ordinary Iraqis. It then details the strengths and weaknesses of the political structures built after regime change, from the formation of the Iraqi Governing Council in 2003 to the elections of January 2005. Finally it traces the dynamics driving political mobilisation in post Saddam Iraq. It concludes by analysing the ramifications of regime change for US policy and the wider Middle East.