Demographic change and long-term growth in China: Past developments and the future challenge of aging
Demographic change and long-term growth in China: Past developments and the future challenge of aging
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DOI：
10.1111/rode.12405
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发表时间：
2018-08-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Zhao, Min
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hsu, Minchung;Liao, Pei-Ju;Zhao, Min
本文探讨了人口变化，特别是生育率的急剧下降和人口年龄结构的演变对中国经济发展的影响。我们的分析采用了一个一般均衡世代重叠模型，生育率，教育投资和要素积累的内生决定。子女对老年人的家庭支持也是中国社会传统文化的一个组成部分。我们发现，技术变革对增长最为重要。平均而言，人口变化约占中国增长的4%，而在1980年之前，人口变化的影响是负面的。如果把人口老龄化也包括在内，我们发现老龄化并不一定对经济增长不利。这一发现反映了这样一个事实，即预期寿命的延长需要更多的储蓄，并使对儿童的教育投资更具吸引力，从而加速了物质资本和人力资本的积累。但如果对父母老龄化的家庭赡养社会规范严格，老龄化会显著增加子女负担，排挤物质和人力资本积累。
This paper explores the influence of demographic changes, particularly the sharp decline in fertility and the evolution of the population age structure, on economic development in China. A general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous decisions on fertility, educational investment, and factor accumulation is employed for our analysis. The family support provided by children to the elderly, which is a component of traditional culture in Chinese society, is also considered. We find that technological changes matter most for growth. Demographic changes, on average, account for approximately 4% of the growth in China, while the effect is negative in the pre-1980 period. With an extension to include population aging, we find that aging is not necessarily adverse to growth. This finding reflects the fact that a longer life expectancy requires more savings and makes educational investment in children more attractive, which accelerates physical capital and human capital accumulation. However, if the social norm of family support for aging parents is strict, aging will significantly increase the children's burden and crowd out physical and human capital accumulation.