The British Climate Change Act: a critical evaluation and proposed alternative approach
The British Climate Change Act: a critical evaluation and proposed alternative approach
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英国气候变化法案：批判性评估和提议的替代方法
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024010
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
R. Pielke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Pielke
本文评估了2008年英国的气候变化法，在法律规定的短期和长期目标的英国经济脱碳的隐含率。该文件使用的卡亚身份结构的评估，采用自下而上的方法（基于对未来英国人口，经济增长和技术的预测）和自上而下的方法（推导出隐含的脱碳率与目标和各种预计的经济增长率相一致）。这两种方法都表明，英国经济必须实现超过4%或5%的年脱碳率。为了将这些数字放在背景下，英国必须在2015年左右达到法国2006年的碳效率，这相当于建造大约30座新的核电站，取代等量的化石能源。本文认为，英国气候变化法案所暗示的任务的规模强烈表明，它是在失败的过程中，并讨论了影响。
This paper evaluates the United Kingdom’s Climate Change Act of 2008 in terms of the implied rates of decarbonization of the UK economy for a short-term and a long-term target established in law. The paper uses the Kaya identity to structure the evaluation, employing both a bottom up approach (based on projections of future UK population, economic growth, and technology) and a top down approach (deriving implied rates of decarbonization consistent with the targets and various rates of projected economic growth). Both approaches indicate that the UK economy would have to achieve annual rates of decarbonization in excess of 4 or 5%. To place these numbers in context, the UK would have to achieve the 2006 carbon efficiency of France by about 2015, a level of effort comparable to the building of about 30 new nuclear power plants, displacing an equivalent amount of fossil energy. The paper argues that the magnitude of the task implied by the UK Climate Change Act strongly suggests that it is on course to fail, and discusses implications.