Evaluation of the lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy and Spain after one month follow up
Evaluation of the lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy and Spain after one month follow up
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138539
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发表时间：
2020-07-10
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Tobias, Aurelio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tobias, Aurelio
从2月底开始，西班牙的SARS-CoV-2疫情就紧跟意大利疫情的脚步。我们使用中断时间序列设计分析了两国各自国家封锁前后的事件病例、死亡和重症监护室入院（ICU）的趋势。使用交互作用模型，采用拟泊松回归分析数据，以估计趋势变化。在第一次封锁后，这两个国家的发病率趋势都大大降低。然而，尽管所有结果的斜率都被拉平，但趋势仍在上升。在第二次封锁期间，对流动性实施了更多限制性措施，这两个国家的日常事件病例和ICU的趋势斜率发生了变化。这一改善表明，所做的努力正在成功地使流行曲线变平，并加强了我们必须坚持下去的信念。
From the end of February, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Spain has been following the footsteps of that in Italy very closely. We have analyzed the trends of incident cases, deaths, and intensive care unit admissions (ICU) in both countries before and after their respective national lockdowns using an interrupted time-series design. Data was analyzed with quasi-Poisson regression using an interaction model to estimate the change in trends. After the first lockdown, incidence trends were considerably reduced in both countries. However, although the slopes have been flattened for all outcomes, the trends kept rising. During the second lockdown, implementing more restrictive measures for mobility, it has been a change in the trend slopes for both countries in daily incident cases and ICUs. This improvement indicates that the efforts overtaken are being successful in flattening the epidemic curve, and reinforcing the belief that we must hold on. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.