Is the Elimination of HIV Infection Within Reach in the United States? Lessons from an Epidemiologic Transmission Model
Is the Elimination of HIV Infection Within Reach in the United States? Lessons from an Epidemiologic Transmission Model
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DOI：
10.1177/003335491012500305
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发表时间：
2010-05-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Holtgrave, David R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Holtgrave, David R.
最近的估计显示，美国的人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）传播率已大幅下降。这就提出了一个问题，在可预见的将来，在全国消除艾滋病毒感染是否可行？我们证明，如果艾滋病毒传播率降低50%，那么艾滋病毒感染的生殖率将下降到低于1，并导致最终消除感染。在最近的国会证词中，疾病控制和预防中心主任和其他人断言，如果没有更早的话，到2020年艾滋病毒传播率可以减半，只要为实现这一目标进行足够的投资。我们断言，如果进行足够的投资，传播率实际上降低了50%，那么艾滋病毒的繁殖率将下降到低于1，为最终消除美国的艾滋病毒感染奠定基础。
Recent estimates show that the transmission rate of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the U.S. has substantially decreased. This raises the question, is elimination of HIV infection in the nation feasible in the foreseeable future? We demonstrate that if the HIV transmission rate were reduced by 50%, then the reproductive rate of HIV infection would drop below unity and lead to eventual elimination of infection. In recent congressional testimony, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and others asserted that the HIV transmission rate can be halved by 2020, if not earlier, provided sufficient investment is made toward achieving this goal. We assert that if adequate investment is made and the transmission rate is in fact lowered by 50%, then the HIV reproductive rate would fall below unity, setting the stage for eventual elimination of HIV infection in the U.S.