Ensemble projection of global isoprene emissions by the end of 21st century using CMIP6 models
Ensemble projection of global isoprene emissions by the end of 21st century using CMIP6 models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118766
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发表时间：
2021-10-04
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Ma, Yimian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cao, Yang;Yue, Xu;Ma, Yimian
异戊二烯是一种关键的生物挥发性有机化合物，对全球气候变化和空气质量至关重要。由于排放方案、气候模型和未来情景的差异，以往预测异戊二烯排放未来变化的研究显示出广泛的不确定性。在这里，我们使用的耦合模式相互比较项目版本6（CMIP 6）的模式合奏，探索全球异戊二烯排放的时空变化，在今天和他们的变化，到21世纪世纪末。目前，大多数模型预测类似的排放率为400 Tg C yr（-1），但在长期趋势上存在很大差异。对于使用天然气和气溶胶排放模型方案的模型，异戊二烯排放在历史时期变化有限，但在2000年后显著增加。然而，对于使用另一种方案具有较强的CO2抑制效果的模型，异戊二烯排放量在历史时期呈下降趋势，2000年后呈温和增长趋势。到世纪末，集合预测显示异戊二烯排放量将增加21-57%，其中最强变暖情景的增加幅度最大。归因分析表明，无论是否考虑CO2抑制效应，温度都是异戊二烯排放增加的主要驱动因素。异戊二烯排放量的增加增加了气候变暖时臭氧污染的风险。
Isoprene is a key biogenic volatile organic compound of vital importance for global climate change and air quality. Previous studies projecting future changes of isoprene emissions showed a wide range of uncertainties due to the discrepancies in emission schemes, climate models, and future scenarios. Here, we use an ensemble of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6) to explore the spatiotemporal variations of global isoprene emissions at present day and their changes by the end of 21st century. At present day, most models predict similar emission rates of 400 Tg C yr(-1) but with large differences in the long-term trends. For models using the scheme of Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, isoprene emissions show limited changes during historical period but significant enhancements after the year 2000. However, for models using another scheme with strong CO2 inhibition effects, isoprene emissions show decreasing trends during historical period and moderate increasing trends after the year 2000. By the end of 21st century, the ensemble projection shows increases of 21-57% in isoprene emissions with the largest enhancement for the strongest warming scenario. Attribution shows that temperature is the dominant driver for the increase of isoprene emissions, no matter whether the CO2 inhibition effects are considered or not. The enhanced isoprene emissions increase the risks of ozone pollution in a warmer climate.