A tale of two futures: contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models
A tale of two futures: contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab7fde
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Hewitson, Bruce
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dosio, Alessandro;Turner, Andrew G.;Hewitson, Bruce
大量区域气候模式集合的结果导致了西非降水变化的两种截然不同但似乎合理的情景，其中一种情景预计几内亚湾春季和萨赫勒夏季的平均降水将显著减少，另一种情景预计这两个地区的夏季降水将增加。干模式和湿模式显示出水分收支的动力和热力学项的相似模式，尽管它们的量级在干模式中更大。最大的差异出现在陆地-大气耦合强度上，干模式显示土壤水分和蒸散发显著减少。两组模式在降水特征上的一些变化是一致的。特别是，预计春季几内亚湾和夏季萨赫勒地区的降水频率将减少，但预计降水将变得更加强烈。
The results of a large ensemble of regional climate models lead to two contrasting but plausible scenarios for the precipitation change over West Africa, one where mean precipitation is projected to decrease significantly over the Gulf of Guinea in spring and the Sahel in summer, and the other where summer precipitation over both regions is projected to increase.Dry and wet models show similar patterns of the dynamic and thermodynamic terms of the moisture budget, although their magnitudes are larger in the dry models. The largest discrepancies are found in the strength of the land-atmosphere coupling, with dry models showing a marked decrease in soil moisture and evapotranspiration.Some changes in precipitation characteristics are consistent for both sets of models. In particular, precipitation frequency is projected to decrease in spring over the Gulf of Guinea and in summer over the Sahel, but precipitation is projected to become more intense.