Estimates of the Live Births, Natural Losses, and Elective Terminations with Down Syndrome in the United States
Estimates of the Live Births, Natural Losses, and Elective Terminations with Down Syndrome in the United States
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DOI：
10.1002/ajmg.a.37001
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发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Skotko, Brian G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
de Graaf, Gert;Buckley, Frank;Skotko, Brian G.
唐氏综合征（DS）的当前和未来活产患病率对于规划服务和优先研究以支持患有这种疾病的人具有实际重要性。活产率受产前筛查技术和政策变化的影响。为了预测这些变化的未来影响，需要一个估计DS患者活产的模型。在这项研究中，我们将联合收割机多样化和稳健的数据集与经验证的估计技术相结合，以描述1900-2010年美国DS的非选择性和活产患病率。此外，在1974-2010年期间，我们估计DS相关的选择性妊娠终止（产前诊断DS）对DS活产的影响。最近几年（2006-2010年）DS的活产患病率估计为12.6/10，000（95% CI 12.4-12.8），每年约有5，300例出生。在此期间，美国每年估计有3，100例与DS相关的选择性妊娠终止。截至2007年，在整个美国，由于DS相关的选择性妊娠终止而导致DS活产减少的估计比率为30%（95%CI：27.3-31.9）。我们的研究结果和模型提供了选择性终止妊娠对DS活产影响的数据，并可能提供一个基线，据此可以估计DS活产的未来趋势。(c)2015年威利期刊公司
The present and future live birth prevalence of Down syndrome (DS) is of practical importance for planning services and prioritizing research to support people living with the condition. Live birth prevalence is influenced by changes in prenatal screening technologies and policies. To predict the future impact of these changes, a model for estimating the live births of people with DS is required. In this study, we combine diverse and robust datasets with validated estimation techniques to describe the non-selective and live birth prevalence of DS in the United States from 1900-2010. Additionally, for the period 1974-2010, we estimate the impact of DS-related elective pregnancy terminations (following a prenatal diagnosis of DS) on the live births with DS. The live birth prevalence for DS in the most recent years (2006-2010) was estimated at 12.6 per 10,000 (95% CI 12.4-12.8), with around 5,300 births annually. During this period, an estimated 3,100 DS-related elective pregnancy terminations were performed in the U.S. annually. As of 2007, the estimated rates at which live births with DS were reduced as a consequence of DS-related elective pregnancy terminations were 30% (95% CI: 27.3-31.9) for the U.S. as a whole. Our results and our model provide data on the impact of elective pregnancy terminations on live births with DS and may provide a baseline from which future trends for live births with DS can be estimated. (c) 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.