Exploring the role of reanalysis data in simulating regional wind generation variability over Northern Ireland
Exploring the role of reanalysis data in simulating regional wind generation variability over Northern Ireland
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DOI：
10.1016/j.renene.2013.02.012
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发表时间：
2013-09
期刊：
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
M. Kubik;D. Brayshaw;P. Coker;J. Barlow
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Kubik;D. Brayshaw;P. Coker;J. Barlow
随着风力发电量的增加，系统影响研究依赖于未来发电量的预测和风力变化的有效表示。一个行之有效的方法来调查风变率的影响是模拟发电使用10米气象桅杆数据的观测。然而，单纯依赖历史风速记录或发电历史存在问题：桅杆数据通常不完整，未位于相关风力发电地点，并且在地面以上错误的高度（通常为10米）记录，其中每一个都可能扭曲发电剖面。一个可能的补充方法是使用再分析数据，其中数据同化技术与最先进的天气预报模型相结合，以产生一个地区的完整网格风时间序列。以前的调查再分析数据集的重点放在比较再分析气象站点记录，而本文比较风发电模拟使用再分析数据直接对历史的风力发电记录。重要的是，这一比较是使用原始再分析数据（典型分辨率为50公里）进行的，而不依赖于计算成本高昂的特定目标区域的“动态降尺度”。虽然原始再分析数据不能，其建设的性质，代表特定地点的影响sub-gridscale地形，但它被证明是可比的或优于桅杆为基础的模拟在该地区考虑，因此有人认为，原始再分析数据可以提供一些显着的优势，作为一个数据源。
As wind generation increases, system impact studies rely on predictions of future generation and effective representation of wind variability. A well-established approach to investigate the impact of wind variability is to simulate generation using observations from 10 m meteorological mast-data. However, there are problems with relying purely on historical wind-speed records or generation histories: mast-data is often incomplete, not sited at a relevant wind generation sites, and recorded at the wrong altitude above ground (usually 10 m), each of which may distort the generation profile. A possible complimentary approach is to use reanalysis data, where data assimilation techniques are combined with state-of-the-art weather forecast models to produce complete gridded wind time-series over an area. Previous investigations of reanalysis datasets have placed an emphasis on comparing reanalysis to meteorological site records whereas this paper compares wind generation simulated using reanalysis data directly against historic wind generation records. Importantly, this comparison is conducted using raw reanalysis data (typical resolution ∼50 km), without relying on a computationally expensive “dynamical downscaling” for a particular target region. Although the raw reanalysis data cannot, by nature of its construction, represent the site-specific effects of sub-gridscale topography, it is nevertheless shown to be comparable to or better than the mast-based simulation in the region considered and it is therefore argued that raw reanalysis data may offer a number of significant advantages as a data source.