Fertility-rate recovery and double-income policies require solving the carbon gap under the Paris Agreement
Fertility-rate recovery and double-income policies require solving the carbon gap under the Paris Agreement
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DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.11.017
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发表时间：
2018-06-01
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
Tohno, Susumu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shigetomi, Yosuke;Nansai, Keisuke;Tohno, Susumu
2015年，日本政府为响应旨在缓解全球气温上升的巴黎协定，承诺到2030年将温室气体（GHG）排放量比2013年减少26%。同年，政府还致力于通过实施被称为“所有公民都充满活力的社会”的社会经济政策，克服低出生率老龄化社会对经济增长造成的障碍。关于这两个国家目标的实现，本研究考察了总和生育率和双收入家庭数量的增加对2030年与家庭消费相关的国内碳足迹（CF）的影响程度。研究结果表明，2030年家庭CF总量将在683至815 Mt-CO（2）eq/y之间，这取决于实施社会经济政策所产生的消费者偏好。这意味着，与“一切照旧”情景相比，与家庭消费相关的温室气体排放量需要减少7.8-29%，才能达到利用2009年CF和巴黎协定中提出的减排目标设定的CF目标。此外，即使实现了目前家庭能源使用和私人汽车使用的二氧化碳排放目标，也需要将非能源商品的家庭碳足迹减少17-28%，以满足社会经济政策和2030年减排目标之间的权衡。
In 2015, in response to the Paris Agreement for mitigating an increase in global temperatures, the Japanese government committed itself to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 26% below 2013 levels by 2030. In the same year, the government also committed itself to overcoming the barriers to economic growth imposed by an aging society with a low birthrate by implementing socio-economic policies referred to as "A Society in Which All Citizens are Dynamically Engaged". Regarding achievement of these two national targets, this study examines the extent to which increases in the total fertility rate and the number of double-income households would impact the domestic carbon footprint (CF) associated with household consumption in 2030. The findings show that the total household CF in 2030 would range from 683 to 815 Mt-CO(2)eq/y, depending on the consumer preferences resulting from implementation of the socio-economic policies. This implies that, compared with a business-as-usual scenario, the GHG emissions associated with household consumption would need to be reduced by more 7.8-29% in order to meet the CF target that can be set using the CF for 2009 and the reduction target proposed in the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, the household CF for non-energy commodities would need to be reduced by 17-28% in order to satisfy the trade-off between the socio-economic policies and the emissions mitigation target for 2030, even if the current CO2 emissions targets for household energy use and private car use are achieved.