"I'm not hoarding, I'm just stocking up before the hoarders get here." Behavioral causes of phantom ordering in supply chains
"I'm not hoarding, I'm just stocking up before the hoarders get here." Behavioral causes of phantom ordering in supply chains
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jom.2015.07.002
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发表时间：
2015-11-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Dogan, Gokhan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sterman, John D.;Dogan, Gokhan
当供应商无法完成订单时，交货延误会增加，客户收到的东西会比他们希望的要少。客户的反应通常是寻求更大的安全库存(囤积)，并订购超过需求的订单(幻影订购)。这种行动会导致更长的交付时间，产生积极的反馈，加剧稀缺性，破坏供应链的稳定。当客户在存在不确定性或产能限制的情况下争夺有限的供应时，囤积和幻影订购可能是理性的。但它们也可能是对稀缺性的行为和情感反应。为了解决这个问题，我们将Croson等人S(2014)的实验研究扩展到啤酒分销游戏。囤积和幻象排序在实验中从来都不是理性的，因为不存在横向竞争、随机性或容量限制；此外，客户需求是恒定的，参与者对这一事实是众所周知的。尽管如此，22%的参与者下的订单超过了已知恒定需求的25倍。我们推广了以前研究中使用的排序启发式，以包括内生囤积和幻象排序的可能性。估计结果有力地支持了这一假设，对于下了极大订单的离群值来说，囤积和幻象排序尤其强烈。我们讨论了精神病学和神经解剖学证据，表明环境应激源可以触发囤积的冲动，压倒理性决策。我们推测，大订单、积压或延迟交货等压力因素会引发一些参与者的囤积和幻觉订购，尽管这些行为是非理性的。我们讨论了对供应链设计和行为运筹学研究的影响。(C)2015爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
When suppliers are unable to fill orders, delivery delays increase and customers receive less than they desire. Customers often respond by seeking larger safety stocks (hoarding) and by ordering more than they need to meet demand (phantom ordering). Such actions cause still longer delivery times, creating positive feedbacks that intensify scarcity and destabilize supply chains. Hoarding and phantom ordering can be rational when customers compete for limited supply in the presence of uncertainty or capacity constraints. But they may also be behavioral and emotional responses to scarcity. To address this question we extend Croson et al.'s (2014) experimental study with the Beer Distribution Game. Hoarding and phantom ordering are never rational in the experiment because there is no horizontal competition, randomness, or capacity constraint; further, customer demand is constant and participants have common knowledge of that fact. Nevertheless 22% of participants place orders more than 25 times greater than the known, constant demand. We generalize the ordering heuristic used in prior research to include the possibility of endogenous hoarding and phantom ordering. Estimation results strongly support the hypothesis, with hoarding and phantom ordering particularly strong for the outliers who placed extremely large orders. We discuss psychiatric and neuroanatomical evidence showing that environmental stressors can trigger the impulse to hoard, overwhelming rational decision-making. We speculate that stressors such as large orders, backlogs or late deliveries trigger hoarding and phantom ordering for some participants even though these behaviors are irrational. We discuss implications for supply chain design and behavioral operations research. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.