Geography and Trade in Central Asia
Geography and Trade in Central Asia
复制标题
中亚的地理和贸易
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1824933
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Z. Parpiev
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Elvira Kurmanalieva;Z. Parpiev
这份文件记录了中亚区域内贸易自20世纪90年代中期以来的稳步下降，与1996年至2005年总体贸易增长3倍的情况背道而驰。使用引力模型对潜在贸易的估计证实，相对于收入水平和其他个人特征，中亚国家往往与世界其他地区贸易过剩，但在区域内贸易严重不足。我们使用Helpman检验来解释区域贸易之谜，该检验基于产品差异化和规模报酬递增来检验产业内贸易的决定因素。赫尔普曼的测试表明，作为一个整体，中亚的行业内贸易很少。总体贸易被发现主要是由这些国家的自然资源禀赋推动的行业间类型。我们的结论是，中亚的贸易模式，特别是其贸易难题，似乎是复杂因素的结果，例如该地区在以自然资源为基础的出口方面具有强大的比较优势，缺乏区域一体化，以及整个地区的贸易优惠政策。
This paper documents the steady decline in Central Asia’s intra-regional trade since the mid-1990s, defying the 3-fold increase in overall trade from 1996 to 2005. Estimations of potential trade using gravity model confirm that the Central Asian countries, relative to their level of income and other individual characteristics, tend to overtrade with the rest of the world, but significantly undertrade within the region. We explain the regional trade puzzle by employing Helpman’s test, which tests the determinants of intra-industry trade based on product differentiation and increasing returns to scale. Helpman’s test indicates that Central Asia as a whole has little intra-industry trade. Overall trade is found to be mostly of inter-industry type, driven by natural resource endowment of these countries. We conclude that Central Asia’s trade patterns, particularly its trade puzzle, seem to be a result of complex factors such as region’s strong comparative advantage in natural resource-based exports, lack of regional integration, and trade-conducive policies across the region.