A Simultaneous Equation Approach to Estimating HIV Prevalence With Nonignorable Missing Responses
A Simultaneous Equation Approach to Estimating HIV Prevalence With Nonignorable Missing Responses
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DOI：
10.1080/01621459.2016.1224713
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发表时间：
2017-06-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
McGovern, Mark E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Marra, Giampiero;Radice, Rosalba;McGovern, Mark E.
对艾滋病毒流行率的估计对于制定政策以确定一国人口的健康状况和评价以人口为基础的干预措施和运动的有效性十分重要。然而，作为家庭调查一部分进行的监测测试的参与率可能很低，其中许多估计都是基于家庭调查。艾滋病毒阳性者可能不太可能参与，因为他们害怕被披露，在这种情况下，使用传统方法处理缺失数据，如基于估算的方法获得的估计数将有偏差。我们开发了一个Heckman型联立方程的方法，占不可分割的选择，但与以前的实现不同，允许空间依赖性，并不强加一个同质的选择过程对所有受访者。此外，我们的框架还解决了分离问题，例如，某些因素严重不平衡，对响应具有高度预测性，这通常会阻止模型收敛。估计是在一个惩罚似然框架内进行的，其中平滑是使用平滑标准的参数化来实现的，这使得估计更加稳定和有效。我们提供的软件直接实施所提出的方法，并应用我们的方法来估计国家和次国家艾滋病毒的流行率。斯威士兰、津巴布韦和赞比亚。本文的补充材料可在网上查阅。
Estimates,of HIV prevalence are important for policy to establish the health status of a country's population and to evaluate,he effectiveness of population-based, interventions and campaigns. However, participation rates in testing for surveillance conducted as part of household surveys, on which, many of these estimates are based, can be low. HIV positive individuals may be less likely to participate because they fear disclosure, in which case estimates, obtained using conventional approaches to deal with missing data, such as imputation-based methods, will be biased. We develop a Heckman-type simultaneous equation approach that accounts for nonignorable selection, but unlike previous implementations, allows for spatial dependence and does not impose a homogenous selection process on all respondents. In addition, our framework addresses the issue of separation, where for instance some factors are severely unbalanced and highly predictive of the response, which would ordinarily prevent model convergence. Estimation is carried out within a penalized likelihood framework where smoothing is achieved using a parameterization of the smoothing criterion, which makes estimation more stable and efficient. We provide the software for straightforward implementation of the proposed approach, and apply our methodology to estimating national and sub national HIV prevalence in. Swaziland, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.