Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales
Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales
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DOI：
10.1002/2013gl059160
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发表时间：
2014-03-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Williams, Andrew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Scaife, Adam A.;Athanassiadou, Maria;Williams, Andrew
准两年振荡（QBO）的可预测性进行了检查，在初始化的气候预测延伸到领先的时间年。我们使用初始化的回顾性预测与耦合的海洋-大气气候模式，有一个内部产生的QBO。我们证明了可预测的QBO延伸到未来3年以上，远远超出了通常与内部大气过程的时间尺度。在12个月的提前期内，观察分析的相关性评分超过0.7。我们还研究了可预测性随季节和QBO相位的变化，发现技能在冬季最低。完美的可预测性的评估表明，更高的技能可以通过改进的初始化和气候建模的QBO实现，虽然这可能取决于现实的重力波源参数化模型。最后，我们表明，QBO本身的巧妙预测并不能保证对地面冬季气候预测很重要的热带外冬季遥相关的可预测性。关键点QBO在季节-年代际预测系统中被巧妙预测，QBO预测的进一步改进是可能的QBO冬季地面遥相关的再现有好有坏
The predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years. We use initialized retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that have an internally generated QBO. We demonstrate predictability of the QBO extending more than 3 years into the future, well beyond timescales normally associated with internal atmospheric processes. Correlation scores with observational analyses exceed 0.7 at a lead time of 12months. We also examine the variation of predictability with season and QBO phase and find that skill is lowest in winter. An assessment of perfect predictability suggests that higher skill may be achievable through improved initialization and climate modeling of the QBO, although this may depend on the realism of gravity wave source parameterizations in the models. Finally, we show that skilful prediction of the QBO itself does not guarantee predictability of the extratropical winter teleconnection that is important for surface winter climate prediction.Key Points The QBO is skilfully predicted in seasonal-decadal forecast systems Further improvements in predictions of the QBO are possible The QBO winter surface teleconnection is reproduced with mixed success