COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality.
COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality.
复制标题
DOI：
10.31389/lseppr.26
复制
发表时间：
2021-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Deaton, Angus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deaton, Angus
人们普遍认为，COVID-19大流行加剧了全球收入不平等，穷国的人均收入下降幅度大于富国。这种假设是合理的，但却是错误的。富裕国家的人均死亡人数比贫穷国家多，尽管它们有更好的卫生系统、更高的收入、更有能力的政府和更好的准备。美国的表现比一些富裕国家差，但比其他几个国家好。死亡人数较多的国家人均国内生产总值下降幅度较大。至少在事后，更少的死亡意味着更多的收入。因此，高收入国家的人均收入下降幅度更大。各国之间的国际收入不平等有所减少。当国家按人口加权时，国际收入不平等加剧，这与最初的直觉一致。这在很大程度上是因为印度国内生产总值下降，也因为印度收入下降的不平等效应没有被中国收入的增加所抵消，中国已经不再是一个全球穷国。使用国际货币基金组织2019年10月和2020年10月的预测对全球不平等进行比较，支持了这些发现是疫情的结果。这些结果只涉及人均国内生产总值，对生活水平的全球分布情况几乎没有或根本没有说明，更不用说在大流行病的第一年里痛苦的全球分布情况了。
There is a widespread belief that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased global income inequality, reducing per capita incomes by more in poor countries than in rich. This supposition is reasonable but false. Rich countries have experienced more deaths per head than have poor countries, their better health systems, higher incomes, more capable governments and better preparedness notwithstanding. The US did worse than some rich countries but better than several others. Countries with more deaths saw larger declines in GDP per capita. At least after the fact, fewer deaths meant more income. As a result, per capita incomes fell by more in higher-income countries. Country by country, international income inequality decreased. When countries are weighted by population, international income inequality increased, in line with the original intuition. This was largely because Indian GDP fell and because the disequalizing effect of declining Indian incomes was not offset by rising incomes in China, which is no longer a globally poor country. That these findings are a result of the pandemic is supported by comparing global inequality using IMF forecasts in October 2019 and October 2020. These results concern GDP per capita and say little or nothing about the global distribution of living standards, let alone about the global distribution of suffering during the first year of the pandemic.