Performance based probabilistic seismic risk assessment for urban heritage. An example in Pla del Remei Area (Valencia)
Performance based probabilistic seismic risk assessment for urban heritage. An example in Pla del Remei Area (Valencia)
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DOI：
10.1007/s10518-023-01721-y
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发表时间：
2023-06
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
A. Guardiola-Víllora;S. Molina;D. D’Ayala
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Guardiola-Víllora;S. Molina;D. D’Ayala
对历史性住宅建筑的抗震性能进行评估，并估计其在地震中可能遭受的损失，是制定战略减灾计划以防止不可替代的遗产损失的必要条件。在这项研究中，一个集成的性能为基础的概率风险评估方法。通过档案研究和实地调查，确定了城市地区传统住宅建筑的建筑和施工特点，并确定了现实的结构模型。这些分析使用极限状态的方法，编码的FaMIVE方法，考虑到不同的施工假设，生产能力曲线，支持识别的离散数量的代表整个建筑库存在该地区。然后，使用修改的N2方法推导出它们的脆弱性函数。鉴于这些资产的遗产价值，很难从纯粹的经济角度量化预期的可能损失，因此损失按受损地面面积和平均受损率计算。这些都是通过地震损失估计平台SELENA获得的，考虑了不同的可能地震情景。该程序适用于砖石住宅建筑inPla del Remeirea瓦伦西亚，西班牙，建于19世纪末和西班牙战争（1939年）结束。这个街区体现了一个新的和短暂的现代化时代的文化价值，建筑技术和历史遗产，受到折衷主义和现代主义的新城市理论和建筑风格的启发。尽管瓦伦西亚位于低-中等地震活动区，但结果表明，475年重现期建筑物破坏面积的最大百分比为5.8%-11.6%，975年重现期建筑物破坏面积的最大百分比为33.59%-51.59%。该研究的高分辨率允许绘制和识别风险较高的结构，因此是支持敏感和有针对性的改造政策的宝贵工具。
The assessment of the seismic behaviour of historic residential buildings and the estimation of their possible losses in the event of an earthquake, is a must for defining strategic mitigation plans to prevent irreplaceable heritage losses. In this study an integrated performance based probabilistic risk assessment methodology is developed. An archival study and a field survey allow to identify architectural and construction characteristics of heritage residential buildings in urban areas and determine realistic structural models. These are analysed by using a limit state approach, coded in the FaMIVE method, considering different construction hypotheses, to produce capacity curves which support the identification of a discrete number of typologies representative of the entire building stock in the area. Their fragility functions are then derived using the modified N2 method. Because of the difficulty in quantifying the expected probable losses in purely economic terms, given the heritage value of these assets, losses are computed in terms of damaged floor surface area and mean damage ratio. These have been obtained through the earthquake loss estimation platform SELENA, considering different possible seismic scenarios. The procedure is applied to masonry residential buildings inPla del Remeiarea of Valencia, Spain, built between the end of the 19th Century and the end of the Spanish War (1939). This neighbourhood embodies the cultural values, construction techniques and historic legacy of a new and brief era of modernity, inspired by the new urban theories and architectural styles of Eclecticism and Modernism. Despite Valencia being located in an area of low to moderate seismicity, the results show that the maximum percentage of built damaged area ranges from 5.8 to 11.6% for 475 years return period, increasing to 33.59–51.59% for 975 years return period. The high level of resolution of the study allows mapping and identifying the structures at higher risk and is therefore a valuable tool to support sensitive and targeted retrofitting policies.