Polls and votes - The trial-heat presidential election forecasting model, certainty, and political campaigns
Polls and votes - The trial-heat presidential election forecasting model, certainty, and political campaigns
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DOI：
10.1177/1532673x9602400402
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发表时间：
1996-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Campbell, JE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Campbell, JE
本文修订、更新和研究了一个预测总统选举中全国两党普选的高精度模型的背景。该模型根据盖洛普试探性民意调查或总统偏好民调以及选举年第二季度的(非年化)经济增长率，提供了9月初的投票预测。据估计，从1948年到1992年的12次总统选举都是如此。该模型的样本外预测的平均绝对误差不到1 1/3个百分点，预测1992年投票的实际误差约为0.5个百分点。文章还评估了对该模型有信心的原因，以及在任何具体预测中衡量不确定性的方法。还探讨了在大选活动开始时或之前预测总统选举的原因。最后，将该预测模型应用于1996年克林顿和多尔的总统竞选。
This article revises, updates, and examines the background for a highly accurate model for forecasting the national two-party popular vote in presidential elections. The model provides a vote prediction in early September based on Gallup trial-heat or presidential preference polls and the (nonannualized) rate of economic growth in the second quarter of the election year. It is estimated over the 12 presidential elections from 1948 to 1992. The mean absolute error of the model's out-of-sample postdictions is less than 1 1/3 percentage point, and its actual error in predicting the 1992 vote was about half a percentage point. The article also assesses the reasons for confidence in the model, as well as an approach to gauging uncertainty in any specific forecast. The reasons presidential elections can be forecast at or before the beginning of the general election campaign also are explored. Finally, the forecasting model is applied to the 1996 presidential campaign between Clinton and Dole.