Using Prediction Markets to Guide Global Warming Policy
Using Prediction Markets to Guide Global Warming Policy
复制标题
利用预测市场来指导全球变暖政策
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Aaron L. Jackson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Scott Sumner;Aaron L. Jackson
目前，对于全球变暖可能的严重程度以及应对这一问题的最具成本效益的政策，都存在很大的不确定性。我们认为，适当设计的预测市场可以减少围绕这一难题的一些不确定性，从而有助于政策制定过程。由于未来的政策制定者将更好地看到问题的规模和提出的解决方案的可行性，今天的政策制定者可能会受益于当前市场对未来全球气温和大气温室气体水平的预测。这将更好地让政策制定者在短期和长期内更有效地引导资源，以解决全球变暖问题。果冻分类：G13、Q54、F42
There is currently great uncertainty about both the likely severity of global warming, and the most cost effective policies for dealing with the problem. We argue that suitably designed prediction markets can reduce some of the uncertainties surrounding this difficult issue, and thus assist in the policymaking process. Because future policymakers will be better placed to see the scale of the problem and feasibility of proposed solutions, policymakers today could benefit from current market forecasts of future global temperatures and atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. This would better allow policymakers to direct resources more effectively in the near term and the long term to address the global warming problem. JEL Classification: G13, Q54, F42