Contemporary monitoring of storm surge activity
Contemporary monitoring of storm surge activity
复制标题
风暴潮活动的当代监测
DOI：
10.1177/0309133319879324
复制
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Guosheng LI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tao JI;Guosheng LI
在全球变暖和海平面上升的背景下，风暴潮活动与灾难性事件及其在全球范围内造成的人员伤亡和破坏以及沿海地区人口增加和问题等意想不到的后果有关，人们对此越来越感兴趣。因此，近年来关于风暴潮监测的知识有了很大的进步，本文将重点放在监测风暴潮的时空变化上，以响应综合的需要。本文提出了三个主要组成部分：(1)从三种有效方法的角度监测风暴潮；(2)了解三种监测方法所面临的挑战，以提高我们监测风暴潮的意识；(3)确定三个研究重点和方向，为未来风暴潮监测提供新思路。从监测方法的角度来看，最近在潮汐计、卫星测高和数值模拟方面取得了进展。如今，风暴潮事件可以被准确地识别，风暴潮高度也可以根据长期的验潮仪观测来计算。风暴潮活动的频率和强度变化，结合统计分析和气候学，可用于更好地了解可能的区域或全球长期趋势。与潮汐观测资料相比，卫星测高的优势在于提供精度达10厘米的近海海平面信息。此外，卫星测高可以为研究风暴潮提供更有效的观测资料，如深海瞬态风暴潮数据。同时，数值模拟对风暴潮的研究也得到了进一步的发展，主要体现在模拟精度的逐步提高，同时也体现在风暴潮活动综合影响因素的细化。然而，从上述方法来看，风暴潮活动监测并不能充分反映风暴潮的时空变化，特别是区域或全球尺度上的空间变化。特别是与全球风暴潮相比，潮汐计和卫星高度计相对稀少，空间分布极不均匀，往往严重制约了对风暴潮活动空间分布特征的整体认识。数值模式提供了风暴潮事件的实时时空特征，可以作为风暴潮监测的一种工具，克服上述不足。但是潮汐和浪涌的长期数值反演需要极高的计算量。考虑到上述方法的不足和气候变化的影响，在气候尺度上研究全球或区域风暴潮活动的时空特征尚无明确的方法来弥补这一框架。因此，我们展示了新的见解或技术如何对监测未来的危机有用。这项工作对于决策者、沿海管理人员、民防管理人员和公众为适应气候变化和海平面上升而进行的规划工作尤为重要。
There is growing interest in storm surge activity related to catastrophic events and their unintended consequences in terms of casualties and damage around the world and in increasing populations and issues along coastal areas in the context of global warming and rising sea levels. Accordingly, knowledge on storm surge monitoring has progressed significantly in recent years, and this review, focused on monitoring the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges, responds to the need for a synthesis. Three main components are presented in the review: (1) monitoring storm surges from the viewpoint of three effective approaches; (2) understanding the challenges faced by the three monitoring approaches to increase our awareness of monitoring storm surges; (3) identifying three research priorities and orientations to provide new ideas in future storm surge monitoring. From the perspective of monitoring approaches, recent progress was achieved with respect to tide gauges, satellite altimetry and numerical simulation. Storm surge events can nowadays be identified accurately, and the surge heights can be calculated based on long-term tide gauge observations. The changing frequency and intensity of storm surge activity, combined with statistical analysis and climatology, can be used to enable a better understanding of the possible regional or global long-term trends. Compared with tidal observation data, satellite altimetry has the advantage of providing offshore sea level information to an accuracy of 10 cm. In addition, satellite altimetry can provide more effective observations for studying storm surges, such as transient surge data of the deep ocean. Simultaneously, the study of storm surges via numerical simulation has been further developed, mainly reflected in the gradual improvement of simulation accuracy but also in the refinement of comprehensive factors affecting storm surge activity. However, from the above approaches, storm surge activity monitoring cannot fully reflect the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges, especially the spatial changes at a regional or global scale. In particular, compared to global storm surge, tide gauges and satellite altimeters are relatively sparse, and the spatial distribution is extremely uneven, which often seriously restricts the overall understanding of the spatial distribution features of storm surge activity. Numerical models can be used as a tool to overcome the above-mentioned shortcomings for storm surge monitoring, as they provide real-time spatiotemporal features of storm surge events. But long-term numerical hindcast of tides and surges requires an extremely high computational effort. Considering the shortcomings of the above approaches and the impact of climate change, there is no clear approach to remedy the framework for studying the spatial and temporal characteristics of global or regional storm surge activity at a climatic scale. Therefore, we show how new insights or techniques are useful for the monitoring of future crises. This work is especially important in planning efforts by policymakers, coastal managers, civil protection managers and the general public to adapt to climate change and rising sea levels.