Predicting the effect of disturbance on coastal birds
Predicting the effect of disturbance on coastal birds
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预测干扰对沿海鸟类的影响
DOI：
10.1111/j.1474-919x.2007.00649.x
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
S. E. A. Durell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Stillman;Andrew D. West;R. Caldow;S. E. A. Durell
对干扰是否对人群产生有害影响的评估通常衡量对干扰的行为反应，并假设行为反应较大的人群更容易受到干扰。然而，不能保证对干扰的行为反应与人口后果有关，这是以繁殖减少或死亡率增加来衡量的。由适应度最大化的个体组成的基于个体的模型，是将对干扰的行为反应与总体后果联系起来的一种手段。本文回顾了基于个体的模型如何用于预测干扰对欧洲几个地点的滨鸟和野禽种群的影响，并展示了这些模型如何在未来通过结合一系列对干扰的替代反应来改进。
Assessments of whether disturbance is having a deleterious effect on populations have often measured behavioural responses to disturbance and assumed that populations with a larger behavioural response are more susceptible to disturbance. However, there is no guarantee that the behavioural response to disturbance is related to the population consequence, measured in terms of decreased reproduction or increased mortality. Individual-based models, consisting of fitness-maximizing individuals, are one means of linking the behavioural responses to disturbance to population consequences. This paper reviews how individual-based models have been used to predict the effect of disturbance on populations of shorebirds and wildfowl at several European sites, and shows how these models could be improved in the future by incorporating a range of alternative responses to disturbance.