Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature
Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature
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银河宇宙线与全球温度年际变化之间因果关系的动力学证据
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1420291112
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发表时间：
2015-03
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Geli Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
George Sugihara;Kyle Swanson;Joshua D. Verbeten;Geli Wang
意义在这里，我们使用新的方法来检查宇宙射线（CR）和全球温度（GT）在20世纪的观测记录之间的动态关联。我们没有发现可测量的证据表明，气候变化与20世纪总体变暖趋势之间存在因果关系;然而，在短的年际时间尺度上，我们发现CR对GT的短期、逐年变化有显著的因果影响，尽管这种影响不大。因此，尽管CR显然对20世纪全球变暖趋势没有可测量的贡献，它们确实在短的年际时间尺度上表现为气候系统中的非传统强迫，为我们理解影响气候变率的因素提供了另一个有趣的难题。早在1959年，就有人假设太阳活动和气候之间的间接联系可以通过控制银河宇宙射线（CR）通量的机制来调节[Ney ER（1959）Nature 183：451-452]。尽管CR和气候之间的联系仍然存在争议，但在欧洲核研究组织[Duplissy J等人（2010）Atmos Chem Phys 10：1635-1647;柯克比J等人（2011）Nature 476（7361）：429-433]和其他地方[Svensmark H，Pedersen JOP，Marsh ND，Enghoff MB，Uggerhøj UI（2007）Proc R Soc A 463：385-396; Enghoff MB，Pedersen JOP，Uggerhoj UI，Paling SM，Svensmark H（2011）Geophys Res Lett 38：L09805]，证明了这种联系的理论机制。在这篇文章中，我们提出了一种基于收敛交叉映射的分析，该分析使用观测时间序列数据来直接研究CR与全球温度逐年变化之间的因果关系。尽管存在总体相关性，但我们没有发现可衡量的证据表明CR与20世纪整体变暖趋势之间存在因果关系。然而，在短的年际时间尺度上，我们发现一个显着的，虽然温和的，CR和短期之间的因果关系的影响，每年的全球温度的变化是一致的存在内部的非线性系统。因此，尽管CR对20世纪的全球变暖趋势没有可测量的贡献，但它们确实在短的年际时间尺度上表现为气候系统中的非传统强迫。
Significance Here we use newly available methods to examine the dynamical association between cosmic rays (CR) and global temperature (GT) in the 20th-century observational record. We find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend; however, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect of CR on short-term, year-to-year variability in GT. Thus, although CR clearly do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales, providing another interesting piece of the puzzle in our understanding of factors influencing climate variability. As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR) [Ney ER (1959) Nature 183:451–452]. Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research [Duplissy J, et al. (2010) Atmos Chem Phys 10:1635–1647; Kirkby J, et al. (2011) Nature 476(7361):429–433] and elsewhere [Svensmark H, Pedersen JOP, Marsh ND, Enghoff MB, Uggerhøj UI (2007) Proc R Soc A 463:385–396; Enghoff MB, Pedersen JOP, Uggerhoj UI, Paling SM, Svensmark H (2011) Geophys Res Lett 38:L09805], demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. However, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales.
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影响因子：
5.2
作者：
I. Usoskin;N. Marsh;G. Kovaltsov;K. Mursula;O. Gladysheva
通讯作者：
I. Usoskin;N. Marsh;G. Kovaltsov;K. Mursula;O. Gladysheva
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Svensmark, Henrik;Enghoff, Martin B.;Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke
通讯作者：
Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.2011.0040
发表时间：
2011-10
期刊：
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
R. Harrison;M. Ambaum;M. Lockwood
通讯作者：
R. Harrison;M. Ambaum;M. Lockwood
DOI：
10.1016/j.jastp.2013.05.017
发表时间：
2013-09
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
A. Rawal;S. N. Tripathi;M. Michael;A. Srivastava;R. Harrison
通讯作者：
A. Rawal;S. N. Tripathi;M. Michael;A. Srivastava;R. Harrison
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Enghoff, Martin B.;Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke;Svensmark, Henrik
通讯作者：
Svensmark, Henrik