Fragility and risk assessment of aboveground storage tanks subjected to concurrent surge, wave, and wind loads
Fragility and risk assessment of aboveground storage tanks subjected to concurrent surge, wave, and wind loads
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2019.106571
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发表时间：
2019-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Bernier;J. Padgett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Bernier;J. Padgett
尽管地面储罐在过去的风暴中遭受了严重的破坏，导致有害物质的释放，但目前缺乏评估地面储罐（ast）在多灾害风暴条件下性能的综合工具。本文提出了一种严格而有效的方法来开发脆弱性模型并对受浪涌、波浪和风荷载联合作用的ast进行风险评估。导出了地表屈曲和位错的参数化脆性模型。ast的屈曲强度采用有限元分析来评估，而对位错的稳定性则采用基于代理模型的载荷模型的解析极限状态函数来评估。然后，通过将脆弱性模型与危害模型进行卷积，对案例研究区域进行情景和概率风险评估。结果表明，所建立的脆弱性模型是评价工业区域系统性能的有效工具。从脆弱性和风险评估中获得的见解表明，如现有研究所做的那样，忽视风暴的多重危害性质可能导致严重低估脆弱性和风险。本文还强调了使用替代模型技术如何促进和降低脆弱性和风险评估的计算复杂性，特别是在多灾害环境中。
Comprehensive tools to assess the performance of aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) under multi-hazard storm conditions are currently lacking, despite the severe damage suffered by ASTs in past storms resulting in the release of hazardous substances. This paper presents a rigorous yet efficient methodology to develop fragility models and perform risk assessments of ASTs subjected to combined surge, wave, and wind loads. Parametrized fragility models are derived for buckling and dislocation from the ground. The buckling strength of ASTs is assessed using finite element analysis, while the stability against dislocation is evaluated using analytical limit state functions with surrogate modeling-based load models. Scenario and probabilistic risk assessments are then performed for a case study region by convolving the fragility models with hazard models. Results demonstrate that the derived fragility models are efficient tools to evaluate the performance of ASTs in industrial regions. Insights obtained from the fragility and risk assessments reveal that neglecting the multi-hazard nature of storms, as existing studies have done, can lead to a significant underestimation of vulnerability and risks. This paper also highlights how using surrogate model techniques can facilitate and reduce the computational complexity of fragility and risk assessments, particularly in multi-hazard settings.