Growth, inequality and poverty dynamics in Mexico
Growth, inequality and poverty dynamics in Mexico
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DOI：
10.1186/s40503-018-0058-9
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发表时间：
2018-12-04
影响因子：
0.5
通讯作者：
Kurosaki, Takashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iniguez-Montiel, Alberto Javier;Kurosaki, Takashi
在这项研究中，我们使用重复的家庭横截面数据，检验了1992年至2014年期间增长和再分配对墨西哥减贫的贡献。我们首先将观察到的减贫变化分解为增长、收入分配改善和异质通胀产生的组成部分。我们发现，通货膨胀的组成部分是不可忽视的，对穷人非常有害，因为自2008年以来，他们经历的通货膨胀一直高于全国平均水平。分解还表明，收入分配的改善是墨西哥减贫的主要贡献因素。在分析的第二部分，我们根据家庭数据编制了一个独特的州一级面板数据集，并估计了一套描述增长、不平等和贫困之间动态关系的方程系统，谨慎地避免了数据构建造成的虚假关联。GMM回归结果表明，墨西哥各州的特点是收入和不平等趋同，不平等程度较低往往会刺激经济增长，收入/消费水平的提高有助于减少不平等，减贫在很大程度上取决于前一时期的不平等水平。这意味着，一旦一个州出现改善收入分配的小扰动，该州预计将在随后的几个时期同时经历持续的收入增长和加速减贫。
In this study, we examine the contributions of growth and redistribution to poverty reduction in Mexico during the period from 1992 to 2014, using repeated cross-section household data. We first decompose the observed changes in poverty reduction into components arising from growth, improved income distribution, and heterogeneous inflation. We find the component of inflation to be non-negligible and highly detrimental to the poor, as the inflation experienced by them has been higher than the national average since 2008. The decomposition also shows improvement in income distribution to be the main contributor to poverty reduction in Mexico. In the second part of our analysis, we compile a unique panel dataset at the state level from the household data and estimate a system of equations that characterize the dynamic relationship between growth, inequality, and poverty, being careful to avoid spurious correlation arising from data construction. The GMM regression results show that Mexican states are characterized by income and inequality convergence, that lower levels of inequality tend to spur growth in the economy, that increasing income/consumption levels contribute to reducing inequality, and that poverty reduction is highly determined by inequality levels in the previous period. This implies that once a small perturbation occurs in a state that improves the distribution of income, the state is expected to experience sustained income growth and accelerated poverty reduction simultaneously in subsequent periods.