A methodological framework for futures studies: integrating normative backcasting approaches and descriptive case study design for strategic data-driven smart sustainable city planning
A methodological framework for futures studies: integrating normative backcasting approaches and descriptive case study design for strategic data-driven smart sustainable city planning
复制标题
未来研究的方法框架：整合规范性回溯方法和描述性案例研究设计，以实现战略数据驱动的智能可持续城市规划
作者：
Simon Elias Bibri
回溯法最初是在20世纪70年代作为传统能源规划方法的替代方法提出的，现在越来越多地应用于与可持续性有关的未来研究，因为它被视为实现可持续发展的自然步骤。未来的研究关注的是数据驱动的智能可持续城市化，作为可持续城市发展的一个实例，实现城市可持续发展的长期目标的战略方法。这是回溯的核心，它通常定义理想（可持续）未来的标准，并在未来和现在的状态之间建立一套可行和逻辑的路径。本文回顾，讨论，并证明在未来的研究中应用的方法框架。该项目旨在分析、调查和开发一种新的模型，用于未来数据驱动的智能可持续城市，作为实现可持续发展的一种变革形式。本文证实，回溯的方法，适用于未来的研究，是非常适合长期的城市问题和可持续发展的解决方案，由于其规范性，目标导向，解决问题的性格。它还表明，案例研究是支持和增加未来愿景可行性的最有效方法。事实上，案例研究方法作为一种研究策略，有助于调查和理解在回溯研究中构建未来愿景所涉及的现实世界现象的基本原则。这项工作的新奇之处在于整合了一系列原则，这些原则是几种规范性回溯方法与描述性案例研究设计的基础，以设计一个战略性城市规划框架，其核心目标是澄清哪种城市模式是理想的，并朝着这一目标努力。基于规范性回溯的长远未来愿景可以激发创新思维，并加快实现可持续性的运动。拟议的框架旨在帮助研究人员分析、调查和开发可持续城市主义、智能城市主义和智能可持续城市主义的未来模型，并支持政策制定者，促进和指导他们在基于可持续发展的变革方面采取行动。实证研究。
Originally proposed as an alternative to traditional energy planning methodology in the 1970s, backcasting is increasingly applied in futures studies related to sustainability, as it is viewed as a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development. This futures study is concerned with data-driven smart sustainable urbanism as an instance of sustainable urban development—a strategic approach to achieving the long-term goals of urban sustainability. This is at the core of backcasting, which typically defines criteria for a desirable (sustainable) future and builds a set of feasible and logical pathways between the state of the future and the present. This paper reviews, discusses, and justifies the methodological framework applied in the futures study. This aims to analyze, investigate, and develop a novel model for data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future as a form of transformative change towards sustainability. This paper corroborates that the backcasting approach—as applied in the futures study—is well-suited for long-term urban problems and sustainability solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. It also suggests that case study research is the most effective way to underpin and increase the feasibility of future visions. Indeed, the case study approach as a research strategy facilitates the investigation and understanding of the underlying principles in the real-world phenomena involved in the construction of the future vision in the backcasting study. The novelty of this work lies in the integration of a set of principles underlying several normative backcasting approaches with descriptive case study design to devise a framework for strategic urban planning whose core objective is clarifying which city model is desired and working towards that goal. Visionary images of a long-term future based on normative backcasting can spur innovative thinking about and accelerate the movement towards sustainability. The proposed framework serves to help researchers in analyzing, investigating, and developing future models of sustainable urbanism, smart urbanism, and smart sustainable urbanism, as well as to support policymakers and facilitate and guide their actions with respect to transformative changes towards sustainability based on empirical research.