The Francis Effect: How Pope Francis Changed the Conversation About Global Warming
The Francis Effect: How Pope Francis Changed the Conversation About Global Warming
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弗朗西斯效应：教皇弗朗西斯如何改变有关全球变暖的对话
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2695199
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
E. Maibach
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Maibach
主要调查结果：从2015年春季到秋季(教皇通谕之前到教皇访问美国之后)……美国人对教皇的看法变得更加积极：更多的美国人(7个百分点)，特别是天主教徒(13个百分点)对教皇的看法非常积极。整体而言，美国人对教皇作为全球变暖信息来源的信任度增加了11分，天主教徒增加了6分。全球变暖成为一个更加突出的问题。更多的美国人(4分)和更多的天主教徒(10分)表示，他们现在每月至少一次或更频繁地在媒体上听到全球变暖的消息。近一半(45%)的美国人和超过一半的天主教徒(56%)表示，在过去的几个月里，他们看到、读到或听到了媒体对教皇对全球变暖的看法的报道。所有美国人(14分)和天主教徒(16分)对教皇通谕的认知度都有所提高。近1/10的美国人(9%)和近2/10的天主教徒(18%)表示，教皇对全球变暖的看法是在他们的礼拜场所讨论的。总体而言，美国人(6分)和天主教徒(5分)更有可能经常或偶尔与朋友和家人讨论全球变暖问题。许多美国人表示，教皇对全球变暖的看法影响了他们自己的观点。许多美国人(17%)和天主教徒(35%)表示，教皇在全球变暖问题上的立场影响了他们对这一问题的看法。在那些自称受到影响的美国人中，一半(50%)的人表示，教皇在全球变暖问题上的立场让他们更担心全球变暖，而不到十分之一(8%)的人说他们变得不那么担心了。在天主教徒中，这一比例分别为53%和8%。美国人越来越担心全球变暖。总体来说，更多的美国人(4分)和更多的天主教徒(8分)对全球变暖有很多或更多的想法。总体来说，更多的美国人(6分)和更多的天主教徒(13分)变得非常或非常确定全球变暖正在发生。然而，认为人类活动导致全球变暖的美国人数量没有变化。总体来说，更多的美国人和美国天主教徒认为，发展中国家的人民(分别为15和17分)和世界穷人(分别为12分和20分)将受到全球变暖的很大或中等程度的伤害。更多的美国人(9分)和更多的天主教徒(13分)认为全球变暖将对美国人造成很大或适度的伤害。总体而言，越来越多的美国人和更多的天主教徒开始相信，美国人迟早会受到全球变暖的伤害。越来越多的美国人(8分)和更多的天主教徒(11分)开始担心全球变暖。更多的美国人(7分)和更多的天主教徒(8分)表示，全球变暖问题对他们个人来说已经变得非常或非常重要。更多的美国人(5分)和更多的天主教徒(7分)表示，他们亲身经历了全球变暖的影响。更多的美国人开始将全球变暖视为一个道德问题。越来越多的美国人和更多的天主教徒开始将全球变暖视为道德问题(分别为6分和8分)或宗教问题(分别为4分和7分)。总体而言，更多的美国人也开始将全球变暖视为社会正义/公平问题(8分)和贫困问题(5分)。对美国应对全球变暖的支持可能有所增加，但仅略有增加。更多的美国人(7分)认为，无论其他国家做什么，美国都应该减少温室气体排放。略多的美国人(2分)支持资助太阳能和风能等可再生能源的研究，但支持对燃煤发电厂设定严格的二氧化碳排放限制的美国人更少(-3分)。结论：在2015年春至秋期间，美国人--尤其是信奉天主教的美国人--对全球变暖的参与和担忧程度略有增加。我们的小组调查结果表明，教皇关于全球变暖的教义促进了公众对这一问题的更多参与。
Key Findings: From Spring to Fall of 2015 (before the Pope’s encyclical to after his visit to the U.S.)...Americans Developed a More Positive View of the Pope: More Americans ( 7 percentage points), especially Catholics ( 13 points), have a very positive opinion of the Pope. Trust in the Pope as a source of information about global warming increased by among Americans overall ( 11 points), and among Catholics ( 6 points). Global Warming Became a More Salient Issue. More Americans ( 4 points) and more Catholics ( 10 points) say they now hear about global warming in the media at least once a month or more frequently. Almost half (45%) of all Americans, and over half of Catholics (56%) say they have seen, read or heard media coverage about the Pope’s views on global warming in the past few months. Awareness of the Pope’s encyclical increased among all Americans ( 14 points) and among Catholics ( 16 points). Nearly 1 in 10 Americans (9%) and nearly 2 in 10 Catholics (18%) said that the Pope’s views on global warming were discussed in their place of worship. Americans overall ( 6 points), and Catholics ( 5 points), become more likely to discuss global warming with their friends and family often or occasionally.Many Americans Say the Pope’s Views on Global Warming Influenced Their Own Views. Many Americans (17%) and Catholics (35%) say the Pope’s position on global warming has influenced their views about the issue. Of those Americans who say they've been influenced, half (50%) say the Pope’s position on global warming made them more concerned about global warming, while fewer than 1 in 10 (8%) say they became less concerned. Among Catholics, the proportions are 53 percent, and 8 percent, respectively.Americans Became More Concerned About Global Warming. More Americans overall ( 4 points), and more Catholics ( 8 points), had thought a lot or some about global warming. More Americans overall ( 6 points), and more Catholics ( 13 points), became very or extremely sure that global warming is happening. There was no change, however, in the number of Americans who believe human activity is causing global warming. More Americans overall and American Catholics think that people in developing countries ( 15 and 17 points, respectively) and the world’s poor ( 12 and 20 points, respectively) will be harmed by global warming a great deal or a moderate amount. More Americans ( 9 points), and more Catholics ( 13 points), think global warming will harm people in the United States a great deal or a moderate amount. More Americans overall, and more Catholics, have come to believe that Americans will be harmed by global warming sooner rather than later. More Americans ( 8 points) and more Catholics ( 11 points) have become worried about global warming. More Americans ( 7 points) and more Catholics ( 8 points) say that the issue of global warming has become very or extremely important to them personally. More Americans ( 5 points) and more Catholics ( 7 points) say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming.More Americans Came to See Global Warming as a Moral Issue. More Americans and more Catholics came to see global warming as a moral issue ( 6 and 8 points, respectively) or a religious issue ( 4 and 7 points, respectively). More Americans overall also came to see global warming as a social justice/fairness issue ( 8 points), and a poverty issue ( 5 points).Support for an American Response to Global Warming May Have Increased, But Only Slightly. More Americans ( 7 points) feel that America should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions regardless of what other countries do. Slightly more Americans ( 2 points) support funding research into renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, although fewer Americans (-3 points) support setting strict carbon dioxide emission limits on coal-fired power plants.Conclusion: Between spring and fall of 2015, Americans – especially Catholic Americans – have become modestly more engaged in and concerned about global warming. Our panel survey findings suggest that the Pope’s teachings about global warming contributed to greater public engagement in the issue.