Comparing the validity of prospective, retrospective, and official onset for different offending categories
Comparing the validity of prospective, retrospective, and official onset for different offending categories
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DOI：
10.1007/s10940-005-2489-0
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发表时间：
2005-06-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Farrington, DP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kazemian, L;Farrington, DP
这项研究的主要目的是利用剑桥犯罪发展研究（一项针对 411 名伦敦男性的前瞻性纵向研究）的数据，根据不同的测量方法（前瞻性自我报告、回顾性自我报告和官方记录）比较六种犯罪的发病年龄，并探索自我报告和官方的发病顺序。结果显示，回顾性报告中报告的发病年龄通常高于前瞻性报告中报告的发病年龄。对于轻微形式的犯罪，未来账目和回顾性账目之间的一致率最低，而对于车辆盗窃等更严重的犯罪行为，预期账目和回顾性账目之间的一致率最高。与前瞻性相比，具有重度物质使用习惯的男性回顾性报告相同发病年龄的可能性较小。在所有比较中，拒绝率都很高，特别是对于轻微形式的犯罪。自我报告的发病指标与官方的发病指标之间的比较表明，两种针对严重犯罪的指标之间存在更大程度的一致性。自我报告的发病顺序表明，轻微犯罪是在更严重的犯罪之前发生的，而官方的发病顺序却表明相反的情况。研究结果表明，回顾性报告不适合解决需要详细信息的研究问题（即大多数犯罪职业参数：发病年龄、频率、终止年龄等）、研究轻微犯罪形式以及具有严重药物使用习惯的个人样本。此外，官方的犯罪措施也可能产生误导性结果，特别是在研究轻微犯罪形式时。
Using data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, a prospective longitudinal study of 411 London males, the main aim of this research is to compare the age of onset of six types of offenses according to different methods of measurement - prospective self-reports, retrospective self-reports, and official records - and also to explore self-reported and official onset sequences. Results showed that ages of onset reported in retrospective accounts generally tended to be higher than those reported prospectively. Agreement rates between prospective and retrospective accounts were lowest for minor forms of offending, and highest for more serious offenses such as theft of vehicles. Males with heavy substance use habits were less likely to report the same age of onset retrospectively compared with prospectively. Denial rates were substantial in all comparisons, particularly for minor forms of offending. Comparisons between self-reported and official measures of onset revealed that there was a greater degree of agreement between the two measures for serious offenses. Whereas self-reported onset sequences suggested that minor crimes were committed before more serious offenses, official onset sequences suggested the reverse. The findings show that retrospective reports are not suitable to address research questions requiring detailed information (i.e., most criminal career parameters: age of onset, frequency, age of termination, etc.), for studying minor forms of offending, and for samples of individuals with serious substance use habits. Furthermore, official measures of offending can also produce misleading results, particularly when studying minor forms of offending.