Estimation of real GDP and unrecorded economy in Turkey based on environmental data
Estimation of real GDP and unrecorded economy in Turkey based on environmental data
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2007.04.012
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发表时间：
2007-10
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Fatih Karanfil;Ata Ozkaya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fatih Karanfil;Ata Ozkaya
本文使用卡尔曼滤波技术估计了土耳其的实际国内生产总值(GDP)和未记录的经济。大多数关于能源政策的研究文章采用不同的检验方法，考察了不同国家能源消费与GDP之间的因果关系。另一方面，其他关于气候变化的研究试图显示能源消耗和GDP对二氧化碳(CO2)排放的影响。由于未报告的经济在有记录的(或官方的)国内生产总值存在相当大的计量问题的发展中国家具有重要的分量，调查有记录的国内生产总值与能源消耗之间的关系可能会导致有偏见的结果。本文使用经济变量(GDP、乡村人口)和环境变量(CO2排放量、森林面积)来估计GDP，这在我们的模型中是一个不可观测的变量。结果清楚地表明：第一，我们的模型估计的土耳其真实GDP高于整个观察期(1973-2003年)的观测(记录)GDP，未记录经济的规模在观测GDP的12%至30%之间变化；第二，真实GDP与观测GDP之间的差距有扩大的趋势；第三，如果每一次能源供应的GDP的变化小于每一次能源供应的CO2的变化，则可能存在未记录的经济。
This paper estimates the real gross domestic product (GDP) and unrecorded economy for Turkey using the Kalman filter technique. Using different tests, most of the research articles on energy policy investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP for different countries. On the other hand, other studies on climate change try to show the effects of both energy consumption and GDP on carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. Since the unreported economy has an important weight in developing countries where the recorded (or official) GDP suffers from considerable measurement problems, investigation of the relationship between the recorded GDP and energy consumption may lead to biased results. In this paper, the economic variables (GDP, country population) as well as environmental variables (CO2emission, forest area) are used in order to estimate GDP, which is an unobserved variable in our model. The results clearly indicate that: first, the true GDP in Turkey, that our model estimates, is higher than the observed (recorded) GDP in the whole period of observation (1973–2003) and the size of unrecorded economy varies between 12 and 30 percent of the observed GDP; second, the gap between the true GDP and the observed GDP has an increasing trend; third, if the change in GDP per primary energy supply is smaller than the change in CO2per primary energy supply, then there may exist unrecorded economy.