Spatiotemporal patterns and ecological factors of tuberculosis notification: A spatial panel data analysis in Guangxi, China
Spatiotemporal patterns and ecological factors of tuberculosis notification: A spatial panel data analysis in Guangxi, China
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结核病通报的时空格局和生态因素：中国广西的空间面板数据分析
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0212051
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发表时间：
2019-05-02
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Zhao, Jinghua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cui, Zhezhe;Lin, Dingwen;Zhao, Jinghua
广西是我国结核病报告率最高的省份之一。然而，空间和时间模式以及环境多样性与结核病报告之间的关联仍不清楚。目的探讨广西壮族自治区2010 - 2016年结核病报告率的时空分布特征及其与生态环境因素的关系。方法采用时间序列分析、Moran's I全局和局部空间自相关统计、时空扫描统计等方法，对广西2010 - 2016年结核病报告进行时空分析和预测。空间面板模型，以确定潜在的关联因素。结果报告病例数以春、夏季为高峰，秋、冬季呈下降趋势。2017年报告病例的预测数为49，946例。在研究期间，Moran's I总体统计量大于0（0.363-0.536）。最显著的热点主要位于中部地区。东部地区表现出低-低的关系。通过时空扫描，识别出的聚类与局部自相关统计的聚类相似，并且聚类到2016年初。日照时数、人均国内生产总值、结核病治疗成功率、新型农村合作医疗参保率与结核病报告率呈显著负相关。结论广西结核病报告率居高不下，报告聚集性最高的是中部地区。报告率与经济水平、治疗成功率和参加新型合作医疗保险有关。
Background Guangxi is one of the provinces having the highest notification rate of tuberculosis in China. However, spatial and temporal patterns and the association between environmental diversity and tuberculosis notification are still unclear. Objective To detect the spatiotemporal pattern of tuberculosis notification rates from 2010 to 2016 and its potential association with ecological environmental factors in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, China. Methods We performed a spatiotemporal analysis with prediction using time series analysis, Moran’s I global and local spatial autocorrelation statistics, and space-time scan statistics to detect temporal and spatial clusters of tuberculosis notifications in Guangxi between 2010 and 2016. Spatial panel models were employed to identify potential associating factors. Results The number of reported cases peaked in spring and summer and decreased in autumn and winter. The predicted number of reported cases was 49,946 in 2017. Moran's I global statistics were greater than 0 (0.363–0.536) during the study period. The most significant hot spots were mainly located in the central area. The eastern area exhibited a low-low relation. By the space-time scanning, the clusters identified were similar to those of the local autocorrelation statistics, and were clustered toward the early part of 2016. Duration of sunshine, per capita gross domestic product, the treatment success rate of tuberculosis and participation rate of the new cooperative medical care insurance scheme in rural areas had a significant negative association with tuberculosis notification rates. Conclusion The notification rate of tuberculosis in Guangxi remains high, with the highest notification cluster located in the central region. The notification rate is associated with economic level, treatment success rate and participation in the new cooperative medical care insurance scheme.