Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
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DOI：
10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017
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发表时间：
2017-11-30
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Yamagata, Yoshiki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Frieler, Katja;Lange, Stefan;Yamagata, Yoshiki
2015年12月，联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）缔约方会议（COP）在法国巴黎邀请政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）提供“2018年全球变暖较工业化前水平升高1.5摄氏度的影响及相关全球温室气体排放路径的特别报告”。 2016年4月，IPCC专家组在肯尼亚内罗毕接受了邀请。在这里，我们描述了跨部门影响模型比对项目 (ISIMIP) 中设计的应对措施，以提供量身定制的、跨部门一致的影响预测，从而拓宽报告的科学基础。模拟协议的设计目的是：（1）将工业化前条件下历史变暖的影响与历史土地利用变化等其他驱动因素的影响分开（基于工业化前和历史影响模型模拟）； (2) 量化额外升温至 1.5 摄氏度的影响，包括潜在的超调和长达 2299 年的长期影响，并与社会经济条件固定在 2005 年水平的较高水平的全球平均温度变化（基于低排放代表性浓度路径 RCP2.6 和无缓解路径 RCP6.0）进行比较； (3) 基于相同的气候情景评估气候影响，同时考虑中间道路共享社会经济路径（SSP2，Fricko 等人，2016）后社会经济条件的同步变化，特别是与能源系统转型以符合 RCP2.6 与 RCP6.0 相比的差异生物能源需求。该议定书旨在为跨部门影响的汇总和可能抑制或放大部门影响的跨部门相互作用的分析提供科学依据，旨在促进不同部门（全球和区域水文、湖泊、全球作物、全球植被、区域森林、全球和区域海洋生态系统和渔业、全球和区域沿海基础设施、能源供应和需求、与温度相关的死亡率和全球陆地生物多样性）的一系列影响模型的一致影响预测。
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 degrees C, including a potential overshoot and longterm impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the lowemissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).