National road casualties and economic development
National road casualties and economic development
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DOI：
10.1002/hec.1020
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Ghaffar, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bishai, D;Quresh, A;Ghaffar, A
目的：本文探讨了为什么交通死亡人数增加与人均国内生产总值在低收入国家和减少与人均国内生产总值在富裕countries.Methods：数据从41个国家的1992年至1996年期间的石油道路运输事故，受伤，死亡以及车辆数量，公里的道路，石油消费，人口。和GDP。固定效应回归用于控制国家间不可观察的异质性。低收入国家GDP增长10%（GDP/Capita < S1600）预计将通过一种独立于人口规模、车辆数量、石油使用、和道路可用性。富裕国家GDP的增加似乎减少了交通死亡人数，但在其他条件相同的情况下，并没有减少撞车或受伤的人数。在富裕国家，更多的汽油使用和酒精使用与更多的交通死亡有关，其他因素都相同。结论：在低收入国家，与交通有关的撞车、受伤和死亡的增加伴随着经济增长。在人均1500 - 8000美元的门槛上，经济增长不再导致额外的交通死亡，尽管撞车和交通伤害继续随着增长而增加。在富裕国家，GDP和交通死亡之间的负相关可能是由较低的伤害严重程度和受伤后的救护车运输和医疗护理所介导的。版权所有（c）2005年约翰威利父子有限公司。
Objective: This paper explores why traffic fatalities increase with GDP per capita in lower income countries and decrease with GDP per capita in wealthy countries.Methods: Data from 41 countries for the period 1992-1996 were obtained oil road transport crashes, injuries, and fatalities as well as numbers of vehicles, kilometers of roadway, oil consumption, population. and GDP. Fixed effects regression was used to control for unobservable heterogeneity among Countries.Results: A 10% increase in GDP in a lower income country (GDP/Capita < S1600) is expected to raise the number of crashes by 7.9%, the number of traffic injuries by 4.7%, and the number of deaths by 3.1% through a mechanism that is independent of population size, vehicle Counts, oil use, and roadway availability. Increases in GDP in richer countries appear to reduce the number of traffic deaths, but do not reduce the number of crashes or injuries, all else equal. Greater petrol use and alcohol use are related to more traffic fatalities in rich countries, all else equal.Conclusion: In lower income countries a rise in traffic-related crashes, injuries, and deaths accompanies economic growth. At a threshold of around $1500-$8000 per capita economic growth no longer leads to additional traffic deaths, although crashes and traffic injuries continue to increase with growth. The negative association between GDP and traffic deaths in rich countries may be mediated by lower injury severity and post-injury ambulance transport and medical care. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.