Effects of changing climate on ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes
Effects of changing climate on ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.10996
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发表时间：
2017-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
M. Magee;Chin H. Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Magee;Chin H. Wu
采用一维水动力湖泊模式(DYRESM-WQ-I)模拟了1911-2014年间的冰盖和水温。对美国威斯康星州麦迪逊的鱼湖、温格拉湖和门多塔湖这三个不同形态的湖泊，模拟并比较了气候变化(气温和风速)对冰盖(开冰、离冰、冰盖持续时间和最大冰厚度)的影响。结果表明，近百年来，三湖的年最大冰盖厚度减小，主要是由于开冰期的推迟和封冰期的提前所致。根据对−10°C到+10°C历史值范围内日平均气温的模拟扰动，鱼湖出现最多的是没有冰覆盖的情况，而在极端条件下(+10°C)，温格拉湖仍然保持着冰覆盖。总体而言，面积较大的浅水湖似乎对气候变化引起的冰盖变化更具弹性。
A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM‐WQ‐I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice‐on, ice‐off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice‐on dates and earlier ice‐off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of −10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.