Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving.
Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-96779-6
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发表时间：
2021-08-30
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Solomon SS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mehta SH;Clipman SJ;Wesolowski A;Solomon SS
公共卫生官员不鼓励感恩节期间的旅行和非家庭聚会，但数据显示，节日期间的旅行有所增加。这项分析的目的是评估节日聚会与感恩节后几周SARS-CoV-2阳性之间的关系。通过一项在线调查，我们在2020年12月4日至18日，即感恩节后约8至22天，对美国10个州的7770人进行了抽样调查。参与者被问及感恩节、新冠肺炎症状以及前两周的SARS-CoV-2检测和阳性情况。用Logistic回归分析感恩节后数周内SARS-CoV-2阳性和新冠肺炎症状的相关因素。活动分数衡量的是一个人在前两周参加的非必要活动的总数。用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)方法估计社区传播的概率。47.2%的人在家里和家庭成员一起过感恩节，26.9%的人有客人，25.9%的人去旅行。在前两周，人们如何度过感恩节、活动频率和SARS-CoV-2检测阳性之间存在统计学意义上的交互作用(p <； 0.05)。那些在感恩节有客人或旅行的人只有在他们也有大量活动(例如，在前两周内参加了 >； 一次非必要的活动/天)的情况下，才更有可能检测出SARS-CoV-2呈阳性。如果个人限制感恩节后活动的数量和频率，接受调查的个人的病例将减少 >； 的50%。随着旅行的持续增加和传染性更强的三角洲变种开始主导传播，至关重要的是宣传如何以“低风险”方式聚集(例如，尽量减少其他非必要活动)，以减少对全国居家庇护所订单的需求。
Public health officials discouraged travel and non-household gatherings for Thanksgiving, but data suggests that travel increased over the holidays. The objective of this analysis was to assess associations between holiday gatherings and SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the weeks following Thanksgiving. Using an online survey, we sampled 7770 individuals across 10 US states from December 4–18, 2020, about 8–22 days post-Thanksgiving. Participants were asked about Thanksgiving, COVID-19 symptoms, and SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in the prior 2 weeks. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity and COVID-19 symptoms in the weeks following Thanksgiving. An activity score measured the total number of non-essential activities an individual participated in the prior 2 weeks. The probability of community transmission was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. While 47.2% had Thanksgiving at home with household members, 26.9% had guests and 25.9% traveled. There was a statistically significant interaction between how people spent Thanksgiving, the frequency of activities, and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity in the prior 2 weeks (p < 0.05). Those who had guests for Thanksgiving or traveled were only more likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 if they also had high activity (e.g., participated in > one non-essential activity/day in the prior 2 weeks). Had individuals limited the number and frequency of activities post-Thanksgiving, cases in surveyed individuals would be reduced by > 50%. As travel continues to increase and the more contagious Delta variant starts to dominate transmission, it is critical to promote how to gather in a “low-risk” manner (e.g., minimize other non-essential activities) to mitigate the need for nationwide shelter-at-home orders.