Uncertain Hazards, Insurance, and Consumer Choice: Evidence from Housing Markets
Uncertain Hazards, Insurance, and Consumer Choice: Evidence from Housing Markets
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不确定的危险、保险和消费者选择：来自房地产市场的证据
DOI：
10.2307/3146293
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发表时间：
1987
期刊：
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Harry L. White
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Don N. MacDonald;J. Murdoch;Harry L. White
当考虑到洛杉矶和旧金山地区地震的潜在损失时，它与预期的实用新型相匹配。Shilling等人（1985）的研究表明，路易斯安那州巴吞鲁日的住房市场认为，当单户住宅位于洪水可能性增加的地区时，其价值就会降低。Thayer等人（1985）估计，当美国地质勘探局发布地震和火山危险警报时，加州猛犸的房价下降。邓恩（1986）调查了危险化学品泄漏后对西弗吉尼亚州研究所房地产的影响。所有这些研究都使用住宅物业价值来研究消费者行为与导致效用损失的概率事件有关。以类似的方式，我们通过检查住宅物业价值来调查人们对自然灾害（洪水）的行为反应。本研究与Shilling等人的不同之处在于，我们研究了选址决策的理论方面。此外，本文通过纳入保险考虑对Brookshire等人进行了补充。这类研究之所以重要，至少有两个原因。首先，上述调查的结果可用于开展效益/成本研究，试图评估改变事件发生可能性或程度的政策的经济效益。诸如针对地震易发地区的特殊建筑规范、建设抽水站以分流洪水、加强对化学工业的执法和更严格的控制以及规范城市土地使用等政策都是非常昂贵的公共项目。虽然这些项目的成本通常是可用的，但对消费者的好处必须进行估计。消费者愿意花多少钱来降低事件发生的可能性或程度？住宅市场可以为估计这些价值提供一个途径，因为居住地点的选择通常包括危险等级的选择。在消费者意识到这一点的程度上，财产价值的差异将会出现，这表明他们愿意为降低危险水平而支付边际费用。通过统计保持所有其他对财产价值的影响不变，这些差异就可以计算出来。
ent with the expected utility model when considering potential losses from earthquakes in the Los Angeles and San Francisco areas. Shilling, et al. (1985) illustrate that the housing market in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, values single family dwellings less when they are located in an area with an enhanced probability of flooding. Thayer, et al. (1985) estimate the reductions in housing prices that resulted in Mammoth, California, when the USGS issued earthquake and volcano hazard alerts. Dunn (1986) investigates the impacts on real estate in Institute, West Virginia, following a leakage of hazardous chemicals. All of these studies use residential property values to study consumer behavior with respect to probabilistic events that cause losses in utility. In like fashion, we investigate behavioral responses to a natural hazard (flooding) by examining residential property values. This study differs from Shilling, et al. in that we examine the theoretical aspects of the location decision. Moreover, this paper complements Brookshire, et al. by including insurance considerations. This type of research is important for at least two reasons. First, the results of the investigations cited above can be used to develop benefit/cost studies which attempt to assess the economic merits of policies that change the likelihood or magnitude of an event. Policies such as special building codes for earthquake prone areas, the construction of pumping stations to divert flood waters, tighter enforcement and more stringent controls in the chemical industry, and regulating urban land use are very costly public projects. While the costs of these projects are usually available, the benefits to consumers must be estimated. What are consumers willing to pay to reduce the likelihood or magnitude of an event? The residential housing markets may provide an avenue for estimating these values since the choice of where to live often includes the choice of hazard level. To the extent that consumers realize this, differentials in property values will arise that reveal marginal willingness to pay for reductions in hazard levels. By statistically holding all other influences on property values constant, these differentials can be calculated.