Simulating multiple urban land use changes by integrating transportation accessibility and a vector-based cellular automata: a case study on city of Toronto
Simulating multiple urban land use changes by integrating transportation accessibility and a vector-based cellular automata: a case study on city of Toronto
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DOI：
10.1080/10095020.2022.2043730
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发表时间：
2022-03
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Xiaocong Xu;Dachuan Zhang;Xiaoping Liu;Jinpei Ou;Xinxin Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiaocong Xu;Dachuan Zhang;Xiaoping Liu;Jinpei Ou;Xinxin Wu
交通系统提供的可达性在推动城市增长和城市功能用地变化中起着至关重要的作用。传统的土地利用模拟研究通常将可达性简化为邻近性，采用基于网格的模拟策略，导致难以刻画地块的空间几何特征，难以模拟城市功能类型间的细微土地利用变化。为克服这些局限性，提出了一种基于向量元胞自动机（A-VCA）的城市土地利用变化模拟模型。从实际旅行时间数据中获得的本地和区域尺度的可达性被认为是细尺度城市土地利用变化的关键驱动因素，并被集成到基于矢量的CA模拟过程中。通过对加拿大多伦多市2012-2016年城市土地利用变化的模拟，对所提出的A-VCA模型进行了测试。一个基于矢量的CA不考虑驱动因素的可达性（VCA）和流行的基于网格的CA模型（未来土地利用模拟，FLUS）也实现了比较。模拟结果表明，A-VCA模型能够较好地模拟小尺度城市土地利用变化，具有良好的形态特征（kappa = 0.907，优值= 0.283，累积生产者精度= 72.83% ± 1.535%）。比较还显示了显着优于VCA和FLUS模型的A-VCA模型，表明访问交互机制和基于矢量的仿真策略的有效性。该模型为更好地模拟精细尺度土地利用变化提供了新的工具，可用于辅助城市和交通规划的制定。
ABSTRACT The accessibility provided by the transportation system plays an essential role in driving urban growth and urban functional land use changes. Conventional studies on land use simulation usually simplified the accessibility as proximities and adopted the grid-based simulation strategy, leading to the insufficiencies of characterizing spatial geometry of land parcels and simulating subtle land use changes among urban functional types. To overcome these limitations, an Accessibility-interacted Vector-based Cellular Automata (A-VCA) model was proposed for the better simulation of realistic land use change among different urban functional types. The accessibility at both local and zonal scales derived from actual travel time data was considered as a key driver of fine-scale urban land use changes and was integrated into the vector-based CA simulation process. The proposed A-VCA model was tested through the simulation of urban land use changes in the City of Toronto, Canada, during 2012–2016. A vector-based CA without considering the driving factor of accessibility (VCA) and a popular grid-based CA model (Future Land Use Simulation, FLUS) were also implemented for comparisons. The simulation results reveal that the proposed A-VCA model is capable of simulating fine-scale urban land use changes with satisfactory accuracy and good morphological feature (kappa = 0.907, figure of merit = 0.283, and cumulative producer’s accuracy = 72.83% ± 1.535%). The comparison also shows significant outperformance of the A-VCA model against the VCA and FLUS models, suggesting the effectiveness of the accessibility-interactive mechanism and vector-based simulation strategy. The proposed model provides new tools for a better simulation of fine-scale land use changes and can be used in assisting the formulation of urban and transportation planning.